Model versus market
The model does not beat the market, and this page is not a card to bet. It is published because the comparison is interesting and because a system that only shows you its good weeks is not telling you anything.
The market is the better predictor
| MRI 2.0 | Market | |
|---|---|---|
| Mean margin error, 16,955 games (ESPN Bet) | 9.40 pts | 8.86 pts |
| Mean margin error, 4,498 games (DraftKings) | 9.52 pts | 8.81 pts |
| Picks the winner outright | 71.6% | 73.0% |
The two numbers correlate at 0.90, so most of the time they agree. Where they disagree it is usually the model that is wrong, and half a point of margin error is the whole reason there is nothing to bet here.
Against the closing line, by season
| Season | ATS |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 51.6% |
| 2024 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 51.9% |
Break-even at −110 is 52.38%. Four seasons, never close, no trend. On DraftKings over 2025–26 it is 48.3% across 4,498 games, which is worse still.
By size of disagreement
If the model knew something the market did not, the buckets where it disagrees most should be the ones that win. Against ESPN Bet's closing number:
| Gap | Bets | ATS | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 3569 | 51.3% | -82.9 | – |
| 1-2 | 3309 | 50.1% | -156.0 | – |
| 2-3 | 2755 | 50.1% | -132.5 | – |
| 3-5 | 3779 | 49.9% | -194.2 | – |
| 5-7 | 1993 | 51.4% | -41.9 | – |
| 7-10 | 1109 | 51.6% | -18.7 | – |
| 10-15 | 361 | 51.2% | -8.6 | – |
| 15+ | 79 | 68.4% | +26.5 | – |
One bucket clears significance: gaps of 15 points or more went 54–25. There are 79 of those in 16,954 games, 42 of them in the first season tested, and reading them is the end of the story — they are November mismatches against opponents the model has barely seen. In one, the model favoured Mississippi Valley State by four where the market had Hawai'i by 25.5. It won the bet while being wrong by 22 points. The bucket is measuring the model's own failures, and it does not reappear on DraftKings.
The one faint signal
Betting the opening number rather than the close, mean closing line value is positive and grows with the size of the disagreement — the market tends to drift toward this model's side after the opener. That is a reason to keep measuring, not a reason to bet, and it is the same shape of hint football produced.
| Gap | Bets | ATS | Units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 884 | 51.4% | -19.0 | +0.08 |
| 1-2 | 846 | 49.9% | -44.4 | -0.02 |
| 2-3 | 763 | 48.2% | -66.5 | +0.11 |
| 3-5 | 1010 | 48.2% | -88.3 | +0.21 |
| 5-7 | 526 | 45.6% | -74.6 | +0.22 |
| 7-10 | 302 | 50.0% | -15.1 | +0.58 |
| 10-15 | 76 | 53.9% | +2.5 | +0.68 |
| 15+ | 10 | 70.0% | +3.7 | +8.20 |
DraftKings openers, 2025–26.
Where they disagree now
No games in the next few days. This fills in during the season.