Friday’s slate

55 Division I games today. The model’s line and win chance for each, the market’s number beside it (DraftKings), and scores with live win chances while games are on.

Pre is the model’s win chance before tip-off; Live is its chance now, from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Tracked marks the games two betting habits would take: a dog pick, where the model has the market underdog winning outright, and a fade, against a team that keeps failing to cover. They come from a fixed rule, not a person: each one is a starting point for human judgement before any bet, never a bet on its own. The betting page keeps the rule’s record; these are tracked, not recommended.

Slates: Thu, Nov 12 · Wed, Nov 11 · Tue, Nov 10 · Mon, Nov 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Sat, Nov 7 · Fri, Nov 6 · Thu, Nov 5 · Wed, Nov 4 · Tue, Nov 3

Best games today

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET

#14ArizonaAuburn

ModelARIZ −1.7MarketARIZ −2.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET

Greenbrier Tip-Off

XavierMississippi State

ModelXAV −1.8MarketXAV −3.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 7:30 PM ET

Ohio State#9UConn

ModelCONN −13.4MarketCONN −12.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ET

GeorgiaNorth Carolina

ModelUNC −8.0MarketUNC −4.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 6:30 PM ET

PittsburghButler

ModelBUT −1.9MarketBUT −3.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET

DePaulNorthwestern

ModelNU −5.7MarketNU −1.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ET

#20VirginiaMaryland

ModelUVA −8.5MarketUVA −5.5

Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET

StanfordUNLV

ModelSTAN −4.5MarketSTAN −1.5

Picked for quality and closeness: both teams highly rated and the model’s line within a few points. From Christmas, when bracketology starts, these become the games that move NCAA Tournament bids most. They carry a red stripe in the lists below.

No games match.

Today · Fri, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketTracked Bid stake

Afternoon 6 games

3:00 PM

West FloridavsCleveland State

44%
56%

CLE −1.7

CLE −3.5

–

–

5:00 PM

North Alabama@Miami

0.1%
>99%

MIA −34.8

MIA −33.5

–

–

5:00 PM

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi@Florida State

2.7%
97%

FSU −21.1

FSU −24.5open FSU −21.5

–

–

6:00 PM

Georgetown@Clemson

17%
83%

CLEM −10.5

CLEM −4.5open CLEM −3.5

–

–

6:00 PM

Bryant@Rutgers

0.8%
99%

RUTG −26.3

RUTG −21.5open RUTG −23.5

–

–

6:30 PM

Pittsburgh@Butler

43%
57%

BUT −1.9

BUT −3.5

–

–

Evening 45 games

7:00 PM

Sam Houston@#5Illinois

0.2%
>99%

ILL −32.6

ILL −36.5open ILL −35.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Merrimack@#6Florida

<0.1%
>99%

FLA −37.9

FLA −36.5open FLA −37.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Tennessee State@#7Tennessee

<0.1%
>99%

TENN −37.9

TENN −28.5open TENN −29.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Northern Iowa@#8Michigan State

1.0%
99%

MSU −25.7

MSU −27.5open MSU −29.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Prairie View A&M@#11Vanderbilt

<0.1%
>99%

VAN −44.2

VAN −40.5open VAN −37.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Ohio@Purdue

1.6%
98%

PUR −23.5

PUR −18.5open PUR −20.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Troy@NC State

1.2%
99%

NCSU −25.0

NCSU −22.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Georgia@North Carolina

23%
77%

UNC −8.0

UNC −4.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Northern Arizona@Kentucky

0.2%
>99%

UK −31.7

UK −30.5open UK −34.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Mount St. Mary's@Virginia Tech

0.4%
>99%

VT −29.1

VT −27.5open VT −28.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Harvard@George Washington

17%
83%

GW −10.3

GW −11.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Yale@Northeastern

78%
22%

YALE −8.6

YALE −1.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Long Island University@Fordham

12%
88%

FOR −13.1

FOR −12.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Iona@Hofstra

20%
80%

HOF −9.1

HOF −7.5

–

–

7:00 PM

App State@Charlotte

34%
66%

CLT −4.6

CLT −7.5open CLT −8.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Florida International@Florida Gulf Coast

48%
52%

FGCU −0.6

FGCU −1.5open FGCU −3.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Columbia@Bucknell

85%
15%

COLU −11.4

COLU −5.5open COLU −4.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Chattanooga@Elon

41%
59%

ELON −2.4

ELON −2.5open ELON −3.5

–

–

7:00 PM

Marist@Lehigh

51%
49%

MRST −0.2

LEH −1.5

Dog pick: MRST

–

7:30 PM

Ohio State@#9UConn

11%
89%

CONN −13.4

CONN −12.5open CONN −10.5

–

–

7:30 PM

North Carolina Central@Liberty

3.4%
97%

LIB −20.0

LIB −16.5open LIB −18.5

–

–

7:30 PM

South Dakota@Drake

6.2%
94%

DRKE −17.0

DRKE −13.5

–

–

7:30 PM

Southeast Missouri State@Middle Tennessee

33%
67%

MTSU −4.8

MTSU −6.5open MTSU −5.5

–

–

8:00 PM

SIU Edwardsville@#1Duke

<0.1%
>99%

DUKE −39.4

DUKE −44.5open DUKE −43.5

–

–

8:00 PM

#20Virginia@Maryland

78%
22%

UVA −8.5

UVA −5.5open UVA −6.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Central Arkansas@#22Arkansas

0.9%
99%

ARK −26.2

ARK −24.5open ARK −26.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Milwaukee@TCU

2.5%
98%

TCU −21.5

TCU −22.5open TCU −25.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Fairleigh Dickinson@Oklahoma

0.8%
99%

OU −26.7

OU −31.5open OU −33.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Georgia Southern@UCF

2.1%
98%

UCF −22.4

UCF −22.5open UCF −23.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Illinois State@North Dakota State

74%
26%

ILST −7.2

ILST −3.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Texas Southern@Murray State

1.5%
98%

MUR −23.9

MUR −29.5open MUR −27.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Wright State@Samford

66%
34%

WRST −4.6

WRST −1.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Southern Miss@Texas State

17%
83%

TXST −10.6

TXST −10.5open TXST −12.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Cal Poly@Idaho

36%
64%

IDHO −4.1

IDHO −1.5

–

–

8:00 PM

Alcorn State@Tarleton State

3.9%
96%

TAR −19.4

TAR −15.5open TAR −13.5

–

–

8:45 PM

Lindenwood@Omaha

51%
49%

LIN −0.2

OMA −4.5open OMA −3.5

Dog pick: LIN

–

9:00 PM

#14Arizona@Auburn

56%
44%

ARIZ −1.7

ARIZ −2.5

–

–

9:00 PM

Seton Hall@#16Alabama

6.0%
94%

ALA −17.1

ALA −17.5open ALA −15.5

–

–

9:00 PM

Greenbrier Tip-OffXaviervsMississippi State

57%
43%

XAV −1.8

XAV −3.5

–

–

9:00 PM

Ball State@SMU

0.7%
99%

SMU −26.8

SMU −23.5open SMU −22.5

–

–

9:00 PM

UL Monroe@Arizona State

0.1%
>99%

ASU −34.5

ASU −31.5open ASU −30.5

–

–

9:00 PM

Stanford@UNLV

66%
34%

STAN −4.5

STAN −1.5open UNLV −1.5

–

–

9:00 PM

DePaul@Northwestern

30%
70%

NU −5.7

NU −1.5open DEP −1.5

–

–

9:30 PM

Mississippi Valley State@Oregon State

0.1%
>99%

ORST −33.2

ORST −34.5open ORST −33.5

–

–

9:30 PM

Chicago State@San Diego

14%
86%

USD −12.2

USD −16.5open USD −14.5

–

–

Late night 4 games

10:00 PM

UC San Diego@Utah State

5.7%
94%

USU −17.4

USU −12.5open USU −13.5

–

–

10:00 PM

UIC@Saint Mary's

16%
84%

SMC −11.0

SMC −6.5open SMC −4.5

–

–

10:00 PM

East Texas A&M@Portland

18%
82%

PORT −10.3

PORT −7.5

–

–

10:30 PM

Arkansas-Pine Bluff@California Baptist

16%
84%

CBU −11.0

CBU −15.5open CBU −16.5

–

–

Tomorrow · Sat, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketTracked Bid stake

Early 17 games

11:00 AM

UNC Greensboro@Cornell

22%
78%

COR −8.3

–

–

–

12:00 PM

Tulane@Akron

3.6%
96%

AKR −19.8

–

–

–

1:00 PM

Stonehill@#13Texas Tech

<0.1%
>99%

TTU −43.4

–

–

–

1:00 PM

BradleyvsGeorge Mason

13%
87%

GMU −12.3

–

–

–

1:00 PM

St. Thomas-Minnesota@Army

77%
23%

STMN −8.1

–

–

–

1:00 PM

410 Invitational · ConsolationTowsonvsMorgan State

90%
10%

TOW −14.1

–

–

–

1:00 PM

Montana@North Dakota

60%
40%

MONT −2.7

–

–

–

1:00 PM

Drexel@Maine

59%
41%

DREX −2.5

–

–

–

1:30 PM

Loyola Chicago@Colorado State

6.9%
93%

CSU −16.3

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Coppin State@South Florida

0.1%
>99%

USF −34.7

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Gardner-Webb@South Carolina

0.3%
>99%

SC −29.7

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Miami (OH)@Evansville

92%
7.9%

M-OH −15.5

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Rice@Stephen F. Austin

11%
89%

SFA −13.6

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Wofford@Queens University

29%
71%

QUC −6.0

–

–

–

2:00 PM

Northern Illinois@Bellarmine

36%
64%

BELL −3.9

–

–

–

2:00 PM

The Citadel@North Florida

27%
73%

UNF −6.6

–

–

–

2:30 PM

Jackson State@Winthrop

19%
81%

WIN −9.6

–

–

–

Afternoon 21 games

3:00 PM

Wyoming@Denver

72%
28%

WYO −6.5

–

–

–

3:30 PM

Bad Boy Mowers SeriesLSU@#12Gonzaga

9.0%
91%

GONZ −14.8

–

–

–

3:30 PM

Central Michigan@Northern Kentucky

35%
65%

NKU −4.2

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Southern Utah@Wake Forest

4.6%
95%

WAKE −18.5

–

–

–

4:00 PM

UNC Asheville@Georgia Tech

7.3%
93%

GT −16.0

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Lafayette@St. Bonaventure

8.4%
92%

SBU −15.2

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Toledo@Detroit Mercy

78%
22%

TOL −8.3

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Air Force@Pacific

11%
89%

PAC −13.4

–

–

–

4:00 PM

South Dakota State@Northern Colorado

42%
58%

UNCO −2.2

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Longwood@Old Dominion

33%
67%

ODU −5.0

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Hampton@Navy

26%
74%

NAVY −6.9

–

–

–

4:00 PM

Delaware State@East Carolina

21%
79%

ECU −8.9

–

–

–

4:30 PM

South Carolina Upstate@Campbell

19%
81%

CAM −9.8

–

–

–

5:00 PM

Utah Tech@California

8.5%
92%

CAL −15.1

–

–

–

5:00 PM

Northern Iowa@Oakland

75%
25%

UNI −7.3

–

–

–

6:00 PM

Colorado@Providence

26%
74%

PROV −7.1

–

–

–

6:00 PM

South Alabama@North Texas

15%
85%

UNT −11.4

–

–

–

6:00 PM

Marshall@Youngstown State

49%
51%

YSU −0.4

–

–

–

6:00 PM

UC Riverside@Fresno State

43%
57%

FRES −2.0

–

–

–

6:00 PM

Manhattan@Le Moyne

30%
70%

LEM −5.8

–

–

–

6:30 PM

Pennsylvania@Saint Joseph's

31%
69%

JOES −5.5

–

–

–

Evening 21 games

7:00 PM

Rider@Villanova

<0.1%
>99%

VILL −39.5

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Austin Peay@Wichita State

9.8%
90%

WICH −14.2

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Washington@Utah

60%
40%

WASH −2.8

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Howard@Davidson

17%
84%

DAV −10.7

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Louisiana@UNC Wilmington

3.7%
96%

UNCW −19.6

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Portland State@San Francisco

20%
80%

SF −9.2

–

–

–

7:00 PM

UAB@Jacksonville State

51%
49%

UAB −0.2

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Brown@Siena

17%
83%

SIE −10.4

–

–

–

7:00 PM

Lipscomb@Western Carolina

41%
59%

WCU −2.5

–

–

–

7:00 PM

UT Rio Grande Valley@UT Arlington

32%
68%

UTA −5.1

–

–

–

7:00 PM

NJIT@Fairfield

14%
86%

FAIR −12.0

–

–

–

7:00 PM

West Georgia@Charleston Southern

22%
78%

CHSO −8.5

–

–

–

7:30 PM

#19Cincinnati@Dayton

92%
7.9%

CIN −15.5

–

–

–

7:30 PM

410 Invitational · ChampionshipUMBC@Towson

22%
78%

TOW −8.5

–

–

–

7:30 PM

Binghamton@Duquesne

13%
87%

DUQ −12.4

–

–

–

7:30 PM

IU Indianapolis@Morehead State

38%
62%

MORE −3.5

–

–

–

8:00 PM

UL Monroe@Grand Canyon

0.1%
>99%

GCU −36.0

–

–

–

8:00 PM

Louisiana Tech@Nicholls

53%
47%

LT −0.8

–

–

–

8:00 PM

UC Davis@Sacramento State

37%
63%

SAC −3.5

–

–

–

8:00 PM

Northwestern State@Little Rock

33%
67%

LR −5.0

–

–

–

8:30 PM

Furman@Belmont

41%
59%

BEL −2.6

–

–

–

Late night 3 games

10:00 PM

New Mexico@Santa Clara

49%
51%

SCU −0.3

–

–

–

10:00 PM

Utah Valley@Nevada

17%
83%

NEV −10.4

–

–

–

10:00 PM

Idaho State@Seattle U

8.6%
91%

SEA −15.0

–

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

TBD

Morgan State@Towson

6.1%
94%

TOW −17.1

–

–

–