Cal State Fullerton
Big West · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +5.6 avg | × 27% | +1.5 |
| Opponents faced | -12.5 avg | × 27% | -3.4 |
| Preseason prior | -6.5 | × 73% | -4.7 |
| Power | -6.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | San Diego State | L 78–102 | -22.1 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| 2 | at | South Dakota | W 87–85 | +2.9 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 3 | vs | Lincoln University (CA) non-D1 | W 101–71 | +29.5 | +0.5 | -0.8 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -4.7 | |||||
| Power | -6.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | UCLA | -31.6 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Portland State | -4.1 | 35% |
| 5 | vs | Weber State | +8.5 | 78% |
Season by season
Best finish: #48 in 2007–08. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 18–16 | #233 of 365 · -5.29 | – |
| 2024–25 | 6–26 | #353 of 364 · -16.84 | – |
| 2023–24 | 14–18 | #219 of 362 · -3.97 | – |
| 2022–23 | 20–13 | #148 of 363 · 1.43 | – |
| 2021–22 | 21–11 | #179 of 358 · -0.44 | – |
| 2020–21 | 6–10 | #269 of 347 · -7.69 | – |
| 2019–20 | 9–20 | – | #288 of 353 · -20.48 |
| 2018–19 | 14–18 | – | #216 of 353 · 9.06 |
| 2017–18 | 20–12 | – | #162 of 351 · 42.51 |
| 2016–17 | 17–15 | – | #215 of 351 · 18.51 |
| 2015–16 | 10–20 | – | #263 of 351 · -11.58 |
| 2014–15 | 9–22 | – | #296 of 351 · -23.06 |
| 2013–14 | 11–20 | – | #279 of 351 · -11.40 |
| 2012–13 | 12–18 | – | #227 of 347 · 4.16 |
| 2011–12 | 21–9 | – | #105 of 345 · 67.91 |
| 2010–11 | 11–20 | – | #286 of 346 · -18.90 |
| 2009–10 | 16–15 | – | #200 of 335 · 18.12 |
| 2008–09 | 15–17 | – | #218 of 330 · 9.56 |
| 2007–08 | 24–9 | – | #48 of 328 · 103.58 |
| 2006–07 | 20–10 | – | #130 of 326 · 49.27 |
| 2005–06 | 16–13 | – | #131 of 326 · 46.26 |
| 2004–05 | 21–11 | – | #93 of 326 · 67.69 |