The MRI
2026–27 · Week 3

Pacific

WCC · 2–1

Power-0.3#148 of 365
Résumé-0.19#223 · wins above average
Movement-6down from #142 last week
Best winBradley (63–52)
Worst lossLong Beach State (59–62)
Schedule faced-19.6 avg opponent
Schedule ahead-8.3 avg opponent
Returning production11% of last season's win shares · #269 of 364 · counted against its preseason rating
Incoming production6.2 win shares from other schools' players

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.

PartValueWeightAdds
Margin counted+23.0 avg× 27%+6.3
Opponents faced-19.6 avg× 27%-5.3
Preseason prior-1.7× 73%-1.3
Power-0.3

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

WkOpponentResult ExpectedPerfAdds
2 vs Bethesda University non-D1 W 102–47 +35.8 +19.2 -0.5
2 at Bradley W 63–52 +0.4 +10.6 +1.9
3 at Long Beach State L 59–62 +5.5 -8.5 -0.4
Preseason prior (73% of the rating)-1.3
Power-0.3

Remaining schedule

WkOpponent ProjectedWin prob
3 vs Air Force +13.4 89%
4 vs Pacific Union non-D1 +35.8 100%
4 vs Bradley +6.3 72%
5 N Jacksonville State +3.6 63%
5 N Omaha +10.6 83%
5 N UC Davis +6.3 72%
6 at Nevada -14.0 10%

Season by season

Best finish: #39 in 2004–05. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

25 1 400 2004–05 (MRI Classic): #39 of 326 (27-4)2005–06 (MRI Classic): #57 of 326 (24-8)2006–07 (MRI Classic): #209 of 326 (12-19)2007–08 (MRI Classic): #115 of 328 (21-10)2008–09 (MRI Classic): #103 of 330 (21-13)2009–10 (MRI Classic): #86 of 335 (23-12)2010–11 (MRI Classic): #161 of 346 (16-15)2011–12 (MRI Classic): #271 of 345 (11-19)2012–13 (MRI Classic): #106 of 347 (20-12)2013–14 (MRI Classic): #156 of 351 (18-16)2014–15 (MRI Classic): #258 of 351 (12-19)2015–16 (MRI Classic): #250 of 351 (8-20)2016–17 (MRI Classic): #232 of 351 (11-22)2017–18 (MRI Classic): #182 of 351 (14-18)2018–19 (MRI Classic): #210 of 353 (12-18)2019–20 (MRI Classic): #76 of 353 (21-10)2020–21 (MRI 2.0): #131 of 347 (9-9)2021–22 (MRI 2.0): #282 of 358 (8-22)2022–23 (MRI 2.0): #244 of 363 (15-18)2023–24 (MRI 2.0): #352 of 362 (6-26)2024–25 (MRI 2.0): #327 of 364 (9-24)2025–26 (MRI 2.0): #145 of 365 (18-15) MRI 2.0Classic 2004–05 2025–26

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

SeasonRec MRI 2.0MRI Classic
2025–26 18–15 #145 of 365 · 0.93 –
2024–25 9–24 #327 of 364 · -12.02 –
2023–24 6–26 #352 of 362 · -17.19 –
2022–23 15–18 #244 of 363 · -4.85 –
2021–22 8–22 #282 of 358 · -8.04 –
2020–21 9–9 #131 of 347 · 2.62 –
2019–20 21–10 – #76 of 353 · 80.59
2018–19 12–18 – #210 of 353 · 12.50
2017–18 14–18 – #182 of 351 · 33.37
2016–17 11–22 – #232 of 351 · 10.71
2015–16 8–20 – #250 of 351 · -3.12
2014–15 12–19 – #258 of 351 · -0.12
2013–14 18–16 – #156 of 351 · 42.92
2012–13 20–12 – #106 of 347 · 56.81
2011–12 11–19 – #271 of 345 · -11.44
2010–11 16–15 – #161 of 346 · 39.73
2009–10 23–12 – #86 of 335 · 81.35
2008–09 21–13 – #103 of 330 · 64.76
2007–08 21–10 – #115 of 328 · 60.37
2006–07 12–19 – #209 of 326 · 13.22
2005–06 24–8 – #57 of 326 · 94.08
2004–05 27–4 – #39 of 326 · 105.41