UC Davis
Mountain West · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +2.0 avg | × 27% | +0.5 |
| Opponents faced | -17.3 avg | × 27% | -4.7 |
| Preseason prior | -3.3 | × 73% | -2.4 |
| Power | -6.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | North Alabama | L 75–79 | +7.8 | -11.8 | -2.4 |
| 2 | vs | Menlo non-D1 | W 65–52 | +29.6 | -16.6 | -1.3 |
| 3 | vs | Incarnate Word | W 81–69 | +11.2 | +0.8 | -0.5 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -2.4 | |||||
| Power | -6.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Sacramento State | -3.5 | 37% |
| 4 | vs | Alabama State | +12.6 | 87% |
| 5 | N | Omaha | +4.3 | 65% |
| 5 | N | Jacksonville State | -2.7 | 40% |
| 5 | N | Pacific | -6.3 | 28% |
| 6 | vs | Portland | -0.4 | 49% |
| 6 | at | North Dakota State | -6.3 | 28% |
| 8 | vs | California Baptist | +6.8 | 73% |
Season by season
Best finish: #114 in 2014–15. 19 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 19–14 | #197 of 365 · -2.30 | – |
| 2024–25 | 15–17 | #245 of 364 · -5.85 | – |
| 2023–24 | 20–13 | #171 of 362 · -0.38 | – |
| 2022–23 | 18–14 | #179 of 363 · -0.39 | – |
| 2021–22 | 13–11 | #239 of 358 · -4.62 | – |
| 2020–21 | 10–8 | #228 of 347 · -4.01 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–18 | – | #242 of 353 · 0.59 |
| 2018–19 | 9–20 | – | #280 of 353 · -19.16 |
| 2017–18 | 22–11 | – | #126 of 351 · 59.62 |
| 2016–17 | 23–13 | – | #192 of 351 · 31.67 |
| 2015–16 | 11–19 | – | #242 of 351 · 0.89 |
| 2014–15 | 25–7 | – | #114 of 351 · 62.25 |
| 2013–14 | 9–22 | – | #335 of 351 · -64.67 |
| 2012–13 | 14–17 | – | #230 of 347 · 3.58 |
| 2011–12 | 5–25 | – | #339 of 345 · -81.68 |
| 2010–11 | 10–20 | – | #281 of 346 · -18.17 |
| 2009–10 | 14–18 | – | #250 of 335 · -0.86 |
| 2008–09 | 13–19 | – | #236 of 330 · 1.22 |
| 2007–08 | 9–22 | – | #315 of 328 · -58.48 |