Cal State Northridge
Big West · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +3.0 avg | × 27% | +0.8 |
| Opponents faced | -3.7 avg | × 27% | -1.0 |
| Preseason prior | -4.3 | × 73% | -3.1 |
| Power | -3.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Wichita State | L 67–79 | -18.1 | +6.1 | +0.2 |
| 2 | at | Kansas State | L 78–95 | -12.3 | -4.7 | -0.9 |
| 3 | vs | Grace University non-D1 | W 108–69 | +32.9 | +6.1 | +0.5 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -3.1 | |||||
| Power | -3.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | Troy | -3.8 | 37% |
| 4 | vs | Delaware | +8.1 | 77% |
| 5 | at | Weber State | +5.9 | 70% |
Season by season
Best finish: #92 in 2004–05. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 20–14 | #198 of 365 · -2.36 | – |
| 2024–25 | 22–11 | #135 of 364 · 2.03 | – |
| 2023–24 | 19–15 | #257 of 362 · -5.80 | – |
| 2022–23 | 7–25 | #334 of 363 · -12.44 | – |
| 2021–22 | 7–23 | #340 of 358 · -14.44 | – |
| 2020–21 | 9–13 | #291 of 347 · -8.83 | – |
| 2019–20 | 13–17 | – | #273 of 353 · -11.99 |
| 2018–19 | 12–21 | – | #258 of 353 · -6.96 |
| 2017–18 | 6–24 | – | #334 of 351 · -62.29 |
| 2016–17 | 11–19 | – | #286 of 351 · -14.52 |
| 2015–16 | 10–20 | – | #271 of 351 · -13.36 |
| 2014–15 | 9–24 | – | #287 of 351 · -16.88 |
| 2013–14 | 17–18 | – | #228 of 351 · 13.69 |
| 2012–13 | 12–17 | – | #200 of 347 · 18.98 |
| 2011–12 | 7–21 | – | #305 of 345 · -34.49 |
| 2010–11 | 14–18 | – | #248 of 346 · -2.09 |
| 2009–10 | 11–21 | – | #248 of 335 · 0.11 |
| 2008–09 | 17–14 | – | #120 of 330 · 57.01 |
| 2007–08 | 20–10 | – | #102 of 328 · 69.19 |
| 2006–07 | 14–17 | – | #187 of 326 · 22.14 |
| 2005–06 | 11–17 | – | #272 of 326 · -14.16 |
| 2004–05 | 18–12 | – | #92 of 326 · 68.06 |