New Haven
NEC · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -12.5 avg | × 27% | -3.4 |
| Opponents faced | +4.4 avg | × 27% | +1.2 |
| Preseason prior | -15.2 | × 73% | -11.1 |
| Power | -13.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Penn State | -21.0 | 3% |
| 4 | vs | Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts non-D1 | +22.9 | 98% |
| 4 | vs | New Hampshire | -0.6 | 48% |
| 5 | N | Lindenwood | -5.6 | 31% |
| 5 | vs | Mitchell College non-D1 | +22.9 | 98% |
| 8 | at | Boston College | -23.2 | 2% |