Nicholls
Southland · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +8.5 avg | × 27% | +2.3 |
| Opponents faced | -11.0 avg | × 27% | -3.0 |
| Preseason prior | -10.4 | × 73% | -7.5 |
| Power | -8.2 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Louisiana Tech | -0.8 | 47% |
| 4 | at | Ole Miss | -28.6 | 0% |
| 4 | N | Southern Miss | -3.0 | 39% |
| 4 | N | Troy | -5.8 | 30% |
| 5 | at | Texas State | -13.6 | 11% |
Season by season
Best finish: #127 in 2017–18. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 14–19 | #266 of 365 · -7.09 | – |
| 2024–25 | 20–13 | #174 of 364 · -0.78 | – |
| 2023–24 | 20–14 | #248 of 362 · -5.31 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–15 | #243 of 363 · -4.84 | – |
| 2021–22 | 21–12 | #185 of 358 · -0.63 | – |
| 2020–21 | 18–7 | #145 of 347 · 1.43 | – |
| 2019–20 | 17–10 | – | #176 of 353 · 33.23 |
| 2018–19 | 10–17 | – | #316 of 353 · -41.51 |
| 2017–18 | 21–11 | – | #127 of 351 · 58.83 |
| 2016–17 | 14–17 | – | #314 of 351 · -32.15 |
| 2015–16 | 11–23 | – | #334 of 351 · -58.14 |
| 2014–15 | 10–19 | – | #320 of 351 · -38.80 |
| 2013–14 | 14–15 | – | #267 of 351 · -7.08 |
| 2012–13 | 9–21 | – | #291 of 347 · -26.93 |
| 2011–12 | 10–20 | – | #331 of 345 · -70.68 |
| 2010–11 | 14–14 | – | #199 of 346 · 24.72 |
| 2009–10 | 11–19 | – | #277 of 335 · -17.35 |
| 2008–09 | 20–11 | – | #134 of 330 · 48.79 |
| 2007–08 | 10–21 | – | #255 of 328 · -10.66 |
| 2006–07 | 8–22 | – | #311 of 326 · -48.99 |
| 2005–06 | 9–18 | – | #308 of 326 · -53.99 |
| 2004–05 | 6–21 | – | #308 of 326 · -43.54 |