Southern Miss
Sun Belt · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +3.5 avg | × 27% | +0.9 |
| Opponents faced | -3.7 avg | × 27% | -1.0 |
| Preseason prior | -7.2 | × 73% | -5.2 |
| Power | -5.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Tougaloo non-D1 | W 82–35 | +30.9 | +16.1 | +0.9 |
| 2 | at | Iowa State | L 57–83 | -35.6 | +9.6 | +0.2 |
| 3 | vs | Jackson State | W 84–80 | +8.4 | -4.4 | -1.2 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -5.2 | |||||
| Power | -5.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Texas State | -10.6 | 17% |
| 4 | vs | UT Arlington | +1.9 | 57% |
| 4 | at | Grambling | +3.4 | 62% |
| 4 | N | Nicholls | +3.0 | 61% |
| 4 | N | Valparaiso | -6.2 | 28% |
| 5 | vs | Grambling | +9.3 | 80% |
| 8 | vs | James Madison | -1.1 | 46% |
| 10 | at | Georgia State | -1.7 | 44% |
Season by season
Best finish: #30 in 2013–14. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 19–16 | #227 of 365 · -4.97 | – |
| 2024–25 | 11–22 | #297 of 364 · -9.45 | – |
| 2023–24 | 16–16 | #214 of 362 · -3.75 | – |
| 2022–23 | 25–8 | #128 of 363 · 3.15 | – |
| 2021–22 | 7–26 | #329 of 358 · -12.46 | – |
| 2020–21 | 8–17 | #245 of 347 · -5.37 | – |
| 2019–20 | 6–22 | – | #305 of 353 · -33.25 |
| 2018–19 | 17–12 | – | #123 of 353 · 53.38 |
| 2017–18 | 16–18 | – | #248 of 351 · 3.61 |
| 2016–17 | 9–22 | – | #328 of 351 · -48.99 |
| 2015–16 | 8–21 | – | #320 of 351 · -38.95 |
| 2014–15 | 9–20 | – | #323 of 351 · -43.62 |
| 2013–14 | 29–7 | – | #30 of 351 · 133.90 |
| 2012–13 | 23–9 | – | #41 of 347 · 109.36 |
| 2011–12 | 26–9 | – | #48 of 345 · 105.52 |
| 2010–11 | 22–10 | – | #39 of 346 · 114.43 |
| 2009–10 | 20–14 | – | #95 of 335 · 71.66 |
| 2008–09 | 15–17 | – | #140 of 330 · 44.95 |
| 2007–08 | 19–14 | – | #79 of 328 · 77.33 |
| 2006–07 | 20–11 | – | #104 of 326 · 64.31 |
| 2005–06 | 10–21 | – | #245 of 326 · -1.97 |
| 2004–05 | 11–17 | – | #235 of 326 · 3.16 |