Texas State
Pac-12 · 3–0
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +23.8 avg | × 27% | +6.5 |
| Opponents faced | -15.7 avg | × 27% | -4.3 |
| Preseason prior | +0.2 | × 73% | +0.2 |
| Power | +2.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | W 67–55 | +9.1 | +2.9 | +0.5 |
| 2 | vs | Howard Payne non-D1 | W 135–66 | +38.5 | +30.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | at | UT Rio Grande Valley | W 72–65 | +5.8 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | +0.2 | |||||
| Power | +2.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Southern Miss | +10.6 | 83% |
| 4 | at | UTSA | +8.9 | 79% |
| 4 | vs | Incarnate Word | +20.1 | 97% |
| 4 | vs | McNeese | -1.2 | 46% |
| 5 | vs | Alcorn State | +26.3 | 99% |
| 5 | at | Louisiana Tech | +4.0 | 64% |
| 5 | vs | Nicholls | +13.6 | 89% |
Season by season
Best finish: #74 in 2019–20. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 19–13 | #232 of 365 · -5.16 | – |
| 2024–25 | 16–16 | #196 of 364 · -2.11 | – |
| 2023–24 | 17–18 | #184 of 362 · -1.73 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–19 | #205 of 363 · -2.42 | – |
| 2021–22 | 21–8 | #111 of 358 · 4.57 | – |
| 2020–21 | 18–7 | #137 of 347 · 2.29 | – |
| 2019–20 | 19–11 | – | #74 of 353 · 82.22 |
| 2018–19 | 22–10 | – | #85 of 353 · 70.22 |
| 2017–18 | 15–18 | – | #213 of 351 · 21.36 |
| 2016–17 | 22–14 | – | #133 of 351 · 53.17 |
| 2015–16 | 15–16 | – | #201 of 351 · 21.73 |
| 2014–15 | 14–17 | – | #210 of 351 · 20.75 |
| 2013–14 | 8–23 | – | #277 of 351 · -11.34 |
| 2012–13 | 11–22 | – | #301 of 347 · -32.87 |
| 2011–12 | 12–15 | – | #235 of 345 · 6.57 |
| 2010–11 | 16–16 | – | #198 of 346 · 24.95 |
| 2009–10 | 15–16 | – | #205 of 335 · 17.35 |
| 2008–09 | 14–16 | – | #166 of 330 · 33.61 |
| 2007–08 | 13–16 | – | #185 of 328 · 23.34 |
| 2006–07 | 9–20 | – | #302 of 326 · -37.83 |
| 2005–06 | 3–24 | – | #317 of 326 · -66.51 |
| 2004–05 | 14–14 | – | #231 of 326 · 5.90 |