Oregon State
Pac-12 · 3–0
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +23.3 avg | × 27% | +6.3 |
| Opponents faced | -9.3 avg | × 27% | -2.5 |
| Preseason prior | +1.7 | × 73% | +1.2 |
| Power | +5.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Weber State | W 102–61 | +20.1 | +20.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | vs | California Baptist | W 96–68 | +18.4 | +9.6 | +1.5 |
| 3 | vs | Eastern Washington | W 94–84 | +13.4 | -3.4 | +0.1 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | +1.2 | |||||
| Power | +5.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Mississippi Valley State | +33.2 | 100% |
| 4 | vs | East Texas A&M | +18.5 | 95% |
| 4 | N | Oregon | -6.8 | 27% |
| 5 | N | Tulsa | -3.6 | 37% |
| 5 | N | San Francisco | +4.2 | 65% |
| 5 | vs | Milwaukee | +13.3 | 89% |
Season by season
Best finish: #78 in 2020–21. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 17–16 | #176 of 365 · -1.13 | – |
| 2024–25 | 21–12 | #97 of 364 · 5.85 | – |
| 2023–24 | 13–19 | #177 of 362 · -1.03 | – |
| 2022–23 | 11–21 | #248 of 363 · -5.12 | – |
| 2021–22 | 3–28 | #229 of 358 · -3.92 | – |
| 2020–21 | 20–13 | #78 of 347 · 8.16 | – |
| 2019–20 | 18–13 | – | #107 of 353 · 63.17 |
| 2018–19 | 18–13 | – | #94 of 353 · 66.79 |
| 2017–18 | 16–16 | – | #117 of 351 · 62.89 |
| 2016–17 | 5–27 | – | #320 of 351 · -40.76 |
| 2015–16 | 19–13 | – | #110 of 351 · 66.09 |
| 2014–15 | 17–14 | – | #142 of 351 · 49.08 |
| 2013–14 | 16–16 | – | #177 of 351 · 34.97 |
| 2012–13 | 14–18 | – | #136 of 347 · 43.97 |
| 2011–12 | 17–14 | – | #101 of 345 · 71.16 |
| 2010–11 | 11–20 | – | #222 of 346 · 12.91 |
| 2009–10 | 14–18 | – | #191 of 335 · 23.61 |
| 2008–09 | 18–18 | – | #193 of 330 · 23.22 |
| 2007–08 | 6–25 | – | #296 of 328 · -34.53 |
| 2006–07 | 11–21 | – | #225 of 326 · 6.25 |
| 2005–06 | 13–18 | – | #242 of 326 · -0.83 |
| 2004–05 | 17–15 | – | #146 of 326 · 39.79 |