Mississippi Valley State
SWAC · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -23.1 avg | × 27% | -6.3 |
| Opponents faced | +10.6 avg | × 27% | +2.9 |
| Preseason prior | -29.9 | × 73% | -21.8 |
| Power | -25.2 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Oklahoma | L 57–84 | -39.1 | +12.1 | -1.4 |
| 3 | at | Washington | L 64–77 | -37.1 | +24.1 | -0.2 |
| 3 | at | Oregon | L 66–100 | -40.0 | +6.0 | -1.8 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -21.8 | |||||
| Power | -25.2 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Oregon State | -33.2 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Arkansas | -49.9 | 0% |
| 5 | at | New Mexico | -42.4 | 0% |
| 8 | at | Mississippi State | -42.5 | 0% |
| 9 | at | Ohio State | -45.2 | 0% |
| 10 | at | Baylor | -46.4 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #179 in 2011–12. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 3–30 | #365 of 365 · -28.83 | – |
| 2024–25 | 3–28 | #364 of 364 · -30.81 | – |
| 2023–24 | 1–30 | #362 of 362 · -24.58 | – |
| 2022–23 | 5–27 | #360 of 363 · -19.90 | – |
| 2021–22 | 2–26 | #358 of 358 · -23.62 | – |
| 2020–21 | 2–22 | #347 of 347 · -30.92 | – |
| 2019–20 | 3–27 | – | #353 of 353 · -158.60 |
| 2018–19 | 5–26 | – | #349 of 353 · -110.96 |
| 2017–18 | 4–28 | – | #345 of 351 · -93.49 |
| 2016–17 | 7–25 | – | #342 of 351 · -74.33 |
| 2015–16 | 8–27 | – | #342 of 351 · -72.68 |
| 2014–15 | 6–26 | – | #348 of 351 · -113.82 |
| 2013–14 | 9–23 | – | #345 of 351 · -74.50 |
| 2012–13 | 5–23 | – | #330 of 347 · -67.70 |
| 2011–12 | 20–12 | – | #179 of 345 · 31.87 |
| 2010–11 | 13–19 | – | #292 of 346 · -22.24 |
| 2009–10 | 9–23 | – | #319 of 335 · -60.06 |
| 2008–09 | 7–25 | – | #319 of 330 · -66.91 |
| 2007–08 | 17–16 | – | #227 of 328 · 3.75 |
| 2006–07 | 18–16 | – | #202 of 326 · 16.65 |
| 2005–06 | 9–19 | – | #302 of 326 · -41.09 |
| 2004–05 | 13–15 | – | #183 of 326 · 24.44 |