Sacramento State
Big West · 1–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 2 games, w is 20%, so the preseason prior is 80% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +7.0 avg | × 20% | +1.4 |
| Opponents faced | -7.5 avg | × 20% | -1.5 |
| Preseason prior | -7.4 | × 80% | -5.9 |
| Power | -6.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Jessup University non-D1 | W 90–74 | +30.2 | -14.2 | -1.2 |
| 2 | at | Santa Clara | L 77–83 | -20.5 | +14.5 | +1.1 |
| Preseason prior (80% of the rating) | -5.9 | |||||
| Power | -6.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | UC Davis | +3.5 | 63% |
| 4 | at | Stanford | -20.9 | 3% |
| 5 | at | Presbyterian | -2.7 | 40% |
Season by season
Best finish: #155 in 2014–15. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 10–21 | #302 of 365 · -10.73 | – |
| 2024–25 | 7–25 | #338 of 364 · -13.90 | – |
| 2023–24 | 10–24 | #307 of 362 · -9.67 | – |
| 2022–23 | 14–18 | #255 of 363 · -5.84 | – |
| 2021–22 | 11–18 | #296 of 358 · -8.86 | – |
| 2020–21 | 8–12 | #202 of 347 · -2.55 | – |
| 2019–20 | 14–14 | – | #158 of 353 · 37.83 |
| 2018–19 | 12–16 | – | #213 of 353 · 10.89 |
| 2017–18 | 7–25 | – | #307 of 351 · -31.04 |
| 2016–17 | 13–18 | – | #284 of 351 · -13.95 |
| 2015–16 | 14–17 | – | #247 of 351 · -2.24 |
| 2014–15 | 21–12 | – | #155 of 351 · 43.15 |
| 2013–14 | 14–16 | – | #243 of 351 · 8.15 |
| 2012–13 | 12–15 | – | #235 of 347 · -0.05 |
| 2011–12 | 10–18 | – | #265 of 345 · -8.39 |
| 2010–11 | 7–21 | – | #311 of 346 · -39.37 |
| 2009–10 | 9–21 | – | #310 of 335 · -47.77 |
| 2008–09 | 2–27 | – | #329 of 330 · -117.40 |
| 2007–08 | 4–24 | – | #324 of 328 · -84.17 |
| 2006–07 | 10–19 | – | #300 of 326 · -37.74 |
| 2005–06 | 15–15 | – | #167 of 326 · 31.76 |
| 2004–05 | 12–16 | – | #260 of 326 · -8.19 |