Valparaiso
MVC · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +8.4 avg | × 27% | +2.3 |
| Opponents faced | -0.7 avg | × 27% | -0.2 |
| Preseason prior | -1.6 | × 73% | -1.2 |
| Power | +0.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Western Illinois | W 80–58 | +25.8 | -3.8 | +0.0 |
| 2 | at | Purdue | W 83–80 | -22.1 | +25.1 | +3.0 |
| 3 | at | South Dakota State | L 69–81 | -1.6 | -10.4 | -0.9 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -1.2 | |||||
| Power | +0.9 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | vs | Calumet College non-D1 | +37.1 | 100% |
| 4 | N | Troy | +3.4 | 62% |
| 4 | N | Southern Miss | +6.2 | 72% |
| 5 | vs | Toledo | +3.7 | 63% |
Season by season
Best finish: #19 in 2015–16. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 18–15 | #187 of 365 · -1.78 | – |
| 2024–25 | 15–19 | #235 of 364 · -4.81 | – |
| 2023–24 | 7–25 | #323 of 362 · -11.44 | – |
| 2022–23 | 11–21 | #288 of 363 · -7.83 | – |
| 2021–22 | 14–18 | #208 of 358 · -2.49 | – |
| 2020–21 | 10–18 | #217 of 347 · -3.19 | – |
| 2019–20 | 18–16 | – | #167 of 353 · 36.69 |
| 2018–19 | 13–18 | – | #225 of 353 · 5.64 |
| 2017–18 | 15–17 | – | #164 of 351 · 41.60 |
| 2016–17 | 24–8 | – | #58 of 351 · 95.98 |
| 2015–16 | 30–7 | – | #19 of 351 · 147.06 |
| 2014–15 | 28–6 | – | #39 of 351 · 114.71 |
| 2013–14 | 18–16 | – | #184 of 351 · 31.98 |
| 2012–13 | 25–7 | – | #59 of 347 · 96.19 |
| 2011–12 | 22–12 | – | #149 of 345 · 46.89 |
| 2010–11 | 23–12 | – | #86 of 346 · 78.15 |
| 2009–10 | 15–17 | – | #218 of 335 · 12.47 |
| 2008–09 | 9–22 | – | #271 of 330 · -13.17 |
| 2007–08 | 22–14 | – | #131 of 328 · 51.97 |
| 2006–07 | 16–15 | – | #196 of 326 · 20.32 |
| 2005–06 | 17–12 | – | #126 of 326 · 49.33 |
| 2004–05 | 15–16 | – | #202 of 326 · 18.56 |