Western Illinois
OVC · 1–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -4.2 avg | × 33% | -1.4 |
| Opponents faced | -12.2 avg | × 33% | -4.1 |
| Preseason prior | -24.6 | × 67% | -16.4 |
| Power | -21.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Valparaiso | L 58–80 | -25.8 | +3.8 | -1.7 |
| 2 | N | Houston Christian | L 67–74 | -13.4 | +6.4 | -1.6 |
| 3 | vs | Simpson College (IA) non-D1 | W 90–48 | +14.3 | +27.7 | +0.5 |
| 3 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield | L 83–91 | -7.7 | -0.3 | -2.7 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | -16.4 | |||||
| Power | -21.9 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | Minnesota | -38.5 | 0% |
| 4 | N | UAlbany | -7.3 | 25% |
| 4 | N | Mercyhurst | -12.2 | 13% |
| 4 | at | Canisius | -7.3 | 25% |
| 5 | at | Coastal Carolina | -15.9 | 7% |
| 6 | at | Indiana | -42.4 | 0% |
| 7 | vs | Tennessee State | -12.5 | 13% |
| 10 | vs | SIU Edwardsville | -14.2 | 10% |
Season by season
Best finish: #103 in 2012–13. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 5–26 | #363 of 365 · -22.28 | – |
| 2024–25 | 12–19 | #336 of 364 · -13.35 | – |
| 2023–24 | 21–12 | #254 of 362 · -5.65 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–14 | #270 of 363 · -6.90 | – |
| 2021–22 | 16–16 | #243 of 358 · -5.07 | – |
| 2020–21 | 7–15 | #309 of 347 · -10.84 | – |
| 2019–20 | 3–21 | – | #328 of 353 · -53.54 |
| 2018–19 | 8–21 | – | #308 of 353 · -36.85 |
| 2017–18 | 12–16 | – | #276 of 351 · -11.16 |
| 2016–17 | 8–20 | – | #319 of 351 · -40.64 |
| 2015–16 | 10–17 | – | #239 of 351 · 2.31 |
| 2014–15 | 8–20 | – | #332 of 351 · -51.18 |
| 2013–14 | 10–20 | – | #268 of 351 · -7.18 |
| 2012–13 | 20–8 | – | #103 of 347 · 57.63 |
| 2011–12 | 18–14 | – | #166 of 345 · 37.88 |
| 2010–11 | 7–23 | – | #331 of 346 · -63.73 |
| 2009–10 | 13–17 | – | #244 of 335 · 1.93 |
| 2008–09 | 9–20 | – | #299 of 330 · -37.76 |
| 2007–08 | 12–18 | – | #257 of 328 · -11.40 |
| 2006–07 | 7–23 | – | #309 of 326 · -47.58 |
| 2005–06 | 7–21 | – | #298 of 326 · -36.28 |
| 2004–05 | 10–17 | – | #250 of 326 · -3.69 |