App State
Sun Belt · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +13.7 avg | × 27% | +3.7 |
| Opponents faced | -7.2 avg | × 27% | -2.0 |
| Preseason prior | -4.7 | × 73% | -3.4 |
| Power | -1.7 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Charlotte | -4.6 | 34% |
| 4 | vs | North Texas | -2.6 | 41% |
| 5 | N | St. Bonaventure | -3.1 | 39% |
| 5 | N | Yale | -5.0 | 33% |
| 5 | N | Akron | -13.1 | 12% |
| 5 | vs | Dartmouth | +6.3 | 72% |
| 8 | at | Louisiana Tech | -0.1 | 50% |
| 10 | vs | Troy | +3.8 | 63% |
Season by season
Best finish: #70 in 2006–07. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 300 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 19–13 | #190 of 365 · -1.89 | – |
| 2024–25 | 17–14 | #155 of 364 · 0.42 | – |
| 2023–24 | 27–7 | #77 of 362 · 8.12 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–16 | #165 of 363 · 0.11 | – |
| 2021–22 | 19–15 | #148 of 358 · 2.20 | – |
| 2020–21 | 17–12 | #149 of 347 · 1.08 | – |
| 2019–20 | 16–15 | – | #194 of 353 · 23.25 |
| 2018–19 | 8–21 | – | #254 of 353 · -6.06 |
| 2017–18 | 15–18 | – | #214 of 351 · 21.19 |
| 2016–17 | 9–21 | – | #279 of 351 · -11.87 |
| 2015–16 | 9–22 | – | #299 of 351 · -26.07 |
| 2014–15 | 12–17 | – | #286 of 351 · -16.51 |
| 2013–14 | 9–21 | – | #295 of 351 · -23.04 |
| 2012–13 | 13–16 | – | #228 of 347 · 3.93 |
| 2011–12 | 13–18 | – | #250 of 345 · -3.38 |
| 2010–11 | 16–15 | – | #214 of 346 · 17.45 |
| 2009–10 | 24–13 | – | #74 of 335 · 85.91 |
| 2008–09 | 13–18 | – | #210 of 330 · 18.29 |
| 2007–08 | 18–13 | – | #144 of 328 · 44.25 |
| 2006–07 | 25–8 | – | #70 of 326 · 89.88 |
| 2005–06 | 14–16 | – | #222 of 326 · 10.49 |
| 2004–05 | 18–12 | – | #150 of 326 · 38.24 |