Ball State
MAC · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +0.7 avg | × 27% | +0.2 |
| Opponents faced | -17.8 avg | × 27% | -4.8 |
| Preseason prior | -6.7 | × 73% | -4.9 |
| Power | -9.5 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Georgia Southern | L 55–67 | -3.1 | -8.9 | -1.7 |
| 2 | vs | Indiana State | L 66–69 | +1.1 | -4.1 | -1.9 |
| 3 | vs | Brescia non-D1 | W 89–64 | +26.6 | -1.6 | -1.0 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -4.9 | |||||
| Power | -9.5 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | SMU | -26.8 | 1% |
| 4 | at | Florida State | -26.8 | 1% |
| 5 | vs | Spalding non-D1 | +26.6 | 99% |
| 5 | at | Southern Indiana | +0.3 | 51% |
| 6 | at | Akron | -23.9 | 2% |
| 6 | vs | Eastern Michigan | -3.3 | 38% |
| 7 | vs | Evansville | +4.5 | 66% |
| 8 | vs | Ohio | -6.2 | 29% |
Season by season
Best finish: #110 in 2019–20. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 12–19 | #292 of 365 · -9.40 | – |
| 2024–25 | 14–17 | #261 of 364 · -6.79 | – |
| 2023–24 | 15–16 | #242 of 362 · -5.01 | – |
| 2022–23 | 20–12 | #177 of 363 · -0.31 | – |
| 2021–22 | 14–17 | #248 of 358 · -5.75 | – |
| 2020–21 | 10–13 | #158 of 347 · 0.44 | – |
| 2019–20 | 16–13 | – | #110 of 353 · 60.45 |
| 2018–19 | 15–17 | – | #157 of 353 · 37.34 |
| 2017–18 | 19–13 | – | #141 of 351 · 50.64 |
| 2016–17 | 21–13 | – | #161 of 351 · 41.70 |
| 2015–16 | 21–14 | – | #136 of 351 · 56.21 |
| 2014–15 | 7–23 | – | #281 of 351 · -12.04 |
| 2013–14 | 5–25 | – | #320 of 351 · -40.07 |
| 2012–13 | 14–15 | – | #225 of 347 · 4.60 |
| 2011–12 | 15–15 | – | #183 of 345 · 29.16 |
| 2010–11 | 19–13 | – | #147 of 346 · 45.16 |
| 2009–10 | 15–15 | – | #211 of 335 · 14.36 |
| 2008–09 | 14–17 | – | #214 of 330 · 13.05 |
| 2007–08 | 6–23 | – | #261 of 328 · -12.29 |
| 2006–07 | 9–22 | – | #226 of 326 · 5.26 |
| 2005–06 | 10–18 | – | #210 of 326 · 15.51 |
| 2004–05 | 15–13 | – | #112 of 326 · 53.73 |