Oakland
Horizon · 0–5
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 5 games, w is 38%, so the preseason prior is 62% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -24.2 avg | × 38% | -9.3 |
| Opponents faced | +17.0 avg | × 38% | +6.5 |
| Preseason prior | -3.5 | × 62% | -2.2 |
| Power | -5.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Michigan | L 68–84 | -38.4 | +22.4 | +1.2 |
| 2 | at | Stanford | L 63–81 | -19.8 | +1.8 | -0.4 |
| 2 | at | UC Santa Barbara | L 67–90 | -13.7 | -9.3 | -1.3 |
| 3 | at | Alabama | L 68–109 | -32.5 | -8.5 | -0.9 |
| 3 | at | Boise State | L 79–111 | -20.0 | -12.0 | -1.4 |
| Preseason prior (62% of the rating) | -2.2 | |||||
| Power | -5.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Northern Iowa | -7.3 | 25% |
| 4 | at | Arizona State | -21.8 | 2% |
| 4 | at | Purdue | -28.0 | 0% |
| 5 | at | Houston | -38.4 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #46 in 2015–16. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 300 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 16–16 | #163 of 365 · -0.30 | – |
| 2024–25 | 16–18 | #195 of 364 · -2.08 | – |
| 2023–24 | 24–12 | #146 of 362 · 1.69 | – |
| 2022–23 | 13–19 | #267 of 363 · -6.64 | – |
| 2021–22 | 20–12 | #157 of 358 · 1.04 | – |
| 2020–21 | 12–18 | #261 of 347 · -6.72 | – |
| 2019–20 | 13–19 | – | #241 of 353 · 0.60 |
| 2018–19 | 15–17 | – | #219 of 353 · 6.32 |
| 2017–18 | 19–14 | – | #150 of 351 · 48.28 |
| 2016–17 | 24–9 | – | #60 of 351 · 94.32 |
| 2015–16 | 23–12 | – | #46 of 351 · 110.94 |
| 2014–15 | 16–17 | – | #209 of 351 · 21.03 |
| 2013–14 | 13–20 | – | #247 of 351 · 5.29 |
| 2012–13 | 14–16 | – | #215 of 347 · 10.72 |
| 2011–12 | 17–15 | – | #168 of 345 · 36.97 |
| 2010–11 | 25–10 | – | #60 of 346 · 97.90 |
| 2009–10 | 26–9 | – | #82 of 335 · 82.91 |
| 2008–09 | 23–13 | – | #139 of 330 · 46.58 |
| 2007–08 | 17–14 | – | #128 of 328 · 53.75 |
| 2006–07 | 19–14 | – | #120 of 326 · 54.05 |
| 2005–06 | 11–18 | – | #244 of 326 · -1.33 |
| 2004–05 | 13–19 | – | #211 of 326 · 14.91 |