East Carolina
American · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -0.9 avg | × 27% | -0.2 |
| Opponents faced | -7.2 avg | × 27% | -2.0 |
| Preseason prior | -7.1 | × 73% | -5.2 |
| Power | -7.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | South Carolina Upstate | W 83–70 | +9.6 | +3.4 | -0.3 |
| 2 | vs | UNC Wilmington | L 75–78 | -8.2 | +5.2 | -0.8 |
| 3 | vs | North Carolina A&T | W 72–67 | +7.0 | -2.0 | -1.1 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -5.2 | |||||
| Power | -7.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Delaware State | +8.9 | 79% |
| 4 | N | Utah Valley | -10.7 | 17% |
| 5 | vs | NC Wesleyan non-D1 | +28.8 | 100% |
| 6 | vs | Richmond | -9.2 | 20% |
Season by season
Best finish: #152 in 2011–12. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 11–20 | #268 of 365 · -7.37 | – |
| 2024–25 | 19–14 | #184 of 364 · -1.37 | – |
| 2023–24 | 15–18 | #191 of 362 · -2.29 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–17 | #208 of 363 · -2.59 | – |
| 2021–22 | 15–15 | #198 of 358 · -2.01 | – |
| 2020–21 | 8–11 | #192 of 347 · -2.11 | – |
| 2019–20 | 11–20 | – | #243 of 353 · 0.54 |
| 2018–19 | 10–21 | – | #275 of 353 · -16.03 |
| 2017–18 | 10–20 | – | #315 of 351 · -37.25 |
| 2016–17 | 15–18 | – | #212 of 351 · 19.66 |
| 2015–16 | 12–20 | – | #241 of 351 · 0.95 |
| 2014–15 | 14–19 | – | #245 of 351 · 4.82 |
| 2013–14 | 17–17 | – | #204 of 351 · 23.73 |
| 2012–13 | 14–12 | – | #171 of 347 · 28.54 |
| 2011–12 | 15–16 | – | #152 of 345 · 44.91 |
| 2010–11 | 18–16 | – | #184 of 346 · 31.53 |
| 2009–10 | 10–21 | – | #288 of 335 · -22.73 |
| 2008–09 | 13–17 | – | #234 of 330 · 2.14 |
| 2007–08 | 11–19 | – | #265 of 328 · -14.48 |
| 2006–07 | 6–24 | – | #313 of 326 · -50.31 |
| 2005–06 | 8–20 | – | #262 of 326 · -10.17 |
| 2004–05 | 8–19 | – | #234 of 326 · 3.73 |