UNC Wilmington
CAA · 3–0
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +21.1 avg | × 27% | +5.8 |
| Opponents faced | -13.3 avg | × 27% | -3.6 |
| Preseason prior | +2.3 | × 73% | +1.6 |
| Power | +3.8 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Mount Olive non-D1 | W 101–65 | +40.0 | -4.0 | +0.2 |
| 2 | at | East Carolina | W 78–75 | +8.2 | -5.2 | +0.5 |
| 3 | vs | Kent State | W 91–73 | +7.8 | +10.2 | +1.5 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | +1.6 | |||||
| Power | +3.8 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Montreat non-D1 | +40.0 | 100% |
| 3 | vs | Louisiana | +19.6 | 96% |
| 4 | at | Long Island University | +9.1 | 80% |
| 4 | at | Norfolk State | +16.4 | 93% |
| 5 | vs | St. Thomas-Minnesota | +6.0 | 71% |
| 5 | vs | Princeton | +8.4 | 78% |
| 5 | vs | Liberty | +5.0 | 68% |
| 10 | vs | Campbell | +13.9 | 90% |
Season by season
Best finish: #24 in 2005–06. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 27–7 | #103 of 365 · 4.67 | – |
| 2024–25 | 27–8 | #99 of 364 · 5.57 | – |
| 2023–24 | 21–10 | #110 of 362 · 5.09 | – |
| 2022–23 | 24–10 | #143 of 363 · 1.84 | – |
| 2021–22 | 27–9 | #172 of 358 · 0.01 | – |
| 2020–21 | 7–10 | #229 of 347 · -4.01 | – |
| 2019–20 | 7–22 | – | #318 of 353 · -45.77 |
| 2018–19 | 9–23 | – | #261 of 353 · -7.35 |
| 2017–18 | 11–21 | – | #238 of 351 · 7.43 |
| 2016–17 | 29–6 | – | #26 of 351 · 128.36 |
| 2015–16 | 25–8 | – | #66 of 351 · 96.98 |
| 2014–15 | 18–14 | – | #182 of 351 · 31.41 |
| 2013–14 | 9–23 | – | #297 of 351 · -23.74 |
| 2012–13 | 9–20 | – | #307 of 347 · -39.24 |
| 2011–12 | 10–21 | – | #274 of 345 · -13.50 |
| 2010–11 | 13–18 | – | #227 of 346 · 10.05 |
| 2009–10 | 9–22 | – | #280 of 335 · -17.99 |
| 2008–09 | 7–25 | – | #320 of 330 · -67.27 |
| 2007–08 | 20–13 | – | #147 of 328 · 41.90 |
| 2006–07 | 7–22 | – | #274 of 326 · -19.26 |
| 2005–06 | 25–8 | – | #24 of 326 · 118.18 |
| 2004–05 | 18–10 | – | #128 of 326 · 48.08 |