Montana State
Big Sky · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -3.1 avg | × 27% | -0.9 |
| Opponents faced | +6.9 avg | × 27% | +1.9 |
| Preseason prior | +0.8 | × 73% | +0.6 |
| Power | +1.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Colorado State | L 74–84 | -10.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
| 2 | vs | Long Beach State | W 83–70 | +13.4 | -0.4 | +0.2 |
| 3 | at | BYU | L 71–86 | -21.9 | +6.9 | +0.6 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | +0.6 | |||||
| Power | +1.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Cal Poly | +8.9 | 79% |
| 4 | at | Gonzaga | -27.4 | 1% |
| 4 | at | High Point | -15.3 | 8% |
| 5 | vs | Northwest Indian non-D1 | +37.8 | 100% |
| 6 | at | South Dakota | +11.2 | 84% |
| 6 | at | Northern Arizona | +9.8 | 81% |
| 10 | vs | Portland State | +10.0 | 82% |
| 10 | vs | Northern Colorado | +5.7 | 70% |
Season by season
Best finish: #112 in 2022–23. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 18–14 | #149 of 365 · 0.55 | – |
| 2024–25 | 15–18 | #193 of 364 · -1.91 | – |
| 2023–24 | 17–18 | #227 of 362 · -4.18 | – |
| 2022–23 | 25–10 | #112 of 363 · 4.37 | – |
| 2021–22 | 27–8 | #115 of 358 · 4.26 | – |
| 2020–21 | 13–10 | #177 of 347 · -0.78 | – |
| 2019–20 | 14–15 | – | #248 of 353 · -0.19 |
| 2018–19 | 14–17 | – | #217 of 353 · 7.95 |
| 2017–18 | 13–19 | – | #259 of 351 · -2.62 |
| 2016–17 | 16–16 | – | #211 of 351 · 21.52 |
| 2015–16 | 14–17 | – | #216 of 351 · 12.59 |
| 2014–15 | 7–23 | – | #315 of 351 · -30.98 |
| 2013–14 | 14–17 | – | #276 of 351 · -11.20 |
| 2012–13 | 11–17 | – | #267 of 347 · -19.99 |
| 2011–12 | 12–17 | – | #261 of 345 · -6.66 |
| 2010–11 | 13–18 | – | #240 of 346 · 2.17 |
| 2009–10 | 15–14 | – | #193 of 335 · 22.57 |
| 2008–09 | 14–17 | – | #257 of 330 · -5.04 |
| 2007–08 | 15–15 | – | #204 of 328 · 15.73 |
| 2006–07 | 11–19 | – | #273 of 326 · -17.92 |
| 2005–06 | 15–15 | – | #216 of 326 · 12.44 |
| 2004–05 | 14–14 | – | #242 of 326 · -1.13 |