Northern Arizona
Big Sky · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -22.5 avg | × 27% | -6.1 |
| Opponents faced | +14.5 avg | × 27% | +4.0 |
| Preseason prior | -12.3 | × 73% | -9.0 |
| Power | -11.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | UNLV | L 77–89 | -18.6 | +6.6 | -0.4 |
| 2 | at | New Mexico | L 65–94 | -28.3 | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| 3 | at | Arizona | L 59–90 | -39.0 | +8.0 | -0.4 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -9.0 | |||||
| Power | -11.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Kentucky | -31.7 | 0% |
| 4 | vs | Embry-Riddle (AZ) non-D1 | +25.0 | 99% |
| 4 | at | Cal Poly | -9.7 | 19% |
| 5 | at | Cal State Bakersfield | -2.8 | 40% |
| 6 | vs | Montana | -4.9 | 33% |
| 6 | vs | Montana State | -9.8 | 19% |
| 9 | at | Iowa State | -41.4 | 0% |
| 10 | at | Weber State | -1.9 | 43% |
Season by season
Best finish: #107 in 2007–08. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 10–22 | #314 of 365 · -11.75 | – |
| 2024–25 | 18–16 | #237 of 364 · -5.18 | – |
| 2023–24 | 14–19 | #313 of 362 · -10.21 | – |
| 2022–23 | 12–23 | #234 of 363 · -4.44 | – |
| 2021–22 | 9–23 | #312 of 358 · -10.93 | – |
| 2020–21 | 6–16 | #297 of 347 · -9.13 | – |
| 2019–20 | 14–14 | – | #204 of 353 · 16.85 |
| 2018–19 | 10–21 | – | #296 of 353 · -26.75 |
| 2017–18 | 5–27 | – | #337 of 351 · -64.06 |
| 2016–17 | 9–23 | – | #321 of 351 · -42.46 |
| 2015–16 | 5–25 | – | #341 of 351 · -71.23 |
| 2014–15 | 23–15 | – | #139 of 351 · 50.20 |
| 2013–14 | 15–17 | – | #229 of 351 · 13.55 |
| 2012–13 | 11–21 | – | #302 of 347 · -33.81 |
| 2011–12 | 5–23 | – | #326 of 345 · -60.31 |
| 2010–11 | 19–13 | – | #125 of 346 · 56.82 |
| 2009–10 | 14–14 | – | #223 of 335 · 9.91 |
| 2008–09 | 8–19 | – | #238 of 330 · 1.07 |
| 2007–08 | 21–11 | – | #107 of 328 · 67.32 |
| 2006–07 | 18–12 | – | #132 of 326 · 48.16 |
| 2005–06 | 21–11 | – | #121 of 326 · 53.92 |
| 2004–05 | 10–17 | – | #212 of 326 · 14.75 |