Cal Poly
Big West · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -10.7 avg | × 27% | -2.9 |
| Opponents faced | +5.6 avg | × 27% | +1.5 |
| Preseason prior | -4.1 | × 73% | -3.0 |
| Power | -4.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | CSU San Marcos non-D1 | W 78–62 | +31.8 | -15.8 | -0.8 |
| 2 | at | Arizona | L 84–104 | -32.3 | +12.3 | +0.5 |
| 3 | at | Grand Canyon | L 71–99 | -22.8 | -5.2 | -1.1 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -3.0 | |||||
| Power | -4.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Idaho | -4.1 | 36% |
| 3 | at | Montana State | -8.9 | 21% |
| 4 | vs | Northern Arizona | +9.7 | 81% |
| 8 | at | Colorado | -15.7 | 8% |
Season by season
Best finish: #134 in 2012–13. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 14–19 | #253 of 365 · -6.35 | – |
| 2024–25 | 16–19 | #243 of 364 · -5.69 | – |
| 2023–24 | 4–28 | #349 of 362 · -16.23 | – |
| 2022–23 | 8–25 | #312 of 363 · -9.88 | – |
| 2021–22 | 7–21 | #321 of 358 · -11.54 | – |
| 2020–21 | 4–20 | #332 of 347 · -14.70 | – |
| 2019–20 | 5–23 | – | #331 of 353 · -55.89 |
| 2018–19 | 4–23 | – | #334 of 353 · -68.19 |
| 2017–18 | 9–22 | – | #330 of 351 · -49.58 |
| 2016–17 | 11–20 | – | #303 of 351 · -26.78 |
| 2015–16 | 10–20 | – | #215 of 351 · 13.03 |
| 2014–15 | 13–16 | – | #170 of 351 · 35.72 |
| 2013–14 | 14–20 | – | #197 of 351 · 27.52 |
| 2012–13 | 16–13 | – | #134 of 347 · 45.66 |
| 2011–12 | 16–16 | – | #146 of 345 · 47.57 |
| 2010–11 | 15–15 | – | #187 of 346 · 29.69 |
| 2009–10 | 12–19 | – | #257 of 335 · -3.70 |
| 2008–09 | 7–21 | – | #275 of 330 · -15.81 |
| 2007–08 | 11–18 | – | #258 of 328 · -11.41 |
| 2006–07 | 19–11 | – | #140 of 326 · 43.87 |
| 2005–06 | 10–19 | – | #281 of 326 · -17.35 |
| 2004–05 | 5–21 | – | #317 of 326 · -71.04 |