Montana
Big Sky · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +8.5 avg | × 27% | +2.3 |
| Opponents faced | -5.6 avg | × 27% | -1.5 |
| Preseason prior | -5.6 | × 73% | -4.1 |
| Power | -3.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Oregon | L 69–87 | -18.0 | +0.0 | -0.5 |
| 2 | vs | Salish Kootenai non-D1 | W 105–40 | +32.9 | +32.1 | +1.2 |
| 3 | at | San Francisco | L 58–63 | -7.0 | +2.0 | +0.1 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -4.1 | |||||
| Power | -3.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | North Dakota | +2.7 | 60% |
| 4 | at | Kansas State | -12.3 | 13% |
| 5 | vs | Carroll (MT) non-D1 | +32.9 | 100% |
| 6 | at | Arizona State | -20.1 | 3% |
| 6 | at | Northern Arizona | +4.9 | 67% |
| 10 | vs | Northern Colorado | +0.9 | 53% |
| 10 | vs | Portland State | +5.1 | 68% |
| 11 | at | Weber State | +5.9 | 70% |
Season by season
Best finish: #37 in 2017–18. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 250 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 18–16 | #206 of 365 · -3.20 | – |
| 2024–25 | 25–10 | #157 of 364 · 0.32 | – |
| 2023–24 | 24–12 | #163 of 362 · 0.57 | – |
| 2022–23 | 17–14 | #182 of 363 · -0.67 | – |
| 2021–22 | 18–14 | #190 of 358 · -1.01 | – |
| 2020–21 | 15–13 | #159 of 347 · 0.42 | – |
| 2019–20 | 17–12 | – | #130 of 353 · 50.13 |
| 2018–19 | 24–9 | – | #70 of 353 · 81.92 |
| 2017–18 | 26–8 | – | #37 of 351 · 118.86 |
| 2016–17 | 16–16 | – | #173 of 351 · 37.93 |
| 2015–16 | 21–12 | – | #113 of 351 · 65.43 |
| 2014–15 | 20–13 | – | #141 of 351 · 49.87 |
| 2013–14 | 17–13 | – | #210 of 351 · 21.09 |
| 2012–13 | 23–6 | – | #114 of 347 · 53.93 |
| 2011–12 | 25–7 | – | #68 of 345 · 89.99 |
| 2010–11 | 21–11 | – | #102 of 346 · 69.12 |
| 2009–10 | 22–10 | – | #71 of 335 · 86.94 |
| 2008–09 | 17–12 | – | #176 of 330 · 30.87 |
| 2007–08 | 14–16 | – | #179 of 328 · 26.10 |
| 2006–07 | 17–15 | – | #170 of 326 · 29.22 |
| 2005–06 | 24–7 | – | #56 of 326 · 94.46 |
| 2004–05 | 17–13 | – | #159 of 326 · 32.45 |