North Dakota
Summit · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -11.0 avg | × 27% | -3.0 |
| Opponents faced | +8.0 avg | × 27% | +2.2 |
| Preseason prior | -11.1 | × 73% | -8.1 |
| Power | -8.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Montana | -2.7 | 40% |
| 4 | vs | SIU Edwardsville | -1.2 | 46% |
| 4 | vs | Mayville State non-D1 | +27.2 | 99% |
| 5 | N | Detroit Mercy | +2.2 | 58% |
| 5 | at | Green Bay | -10.7 | 17% |
| 6 | at | UTEP | -4.6 | 34% |
| 9 | at | Colorado | -20.2 | 3% |
| 11 | at | Omaha | -1.0 | 46% |
Season by season
Best finish: #115 in 2016–17. 16 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 18–17 | #274 of 365 · -8.18 | – |
| 2024–25 | 12–21 | #266 of 364 · -6.99 | – |
| 2023–24 | 18–14 | #215 of 362 · -3.76 | – |
| 2022–23 | 13–20 | #298 of 363 · -8.75 | – |
| 2021–22 | 6–25 | #343 of 358 · -15.43 | – |
| 2020–21 | 9–17 | #285 of 347 · -8.64 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–18 | – | #266 of 353 · -8.49 |
| 2018–19 | 8–18 | – | #287 of 353 · -21.49 |
| 2017–18 | 12–20 | – | #286 of 351 · -16.86 |
| 2016–17 | 22–10 | – | #115 of 351 · 62.09 |
| 2015–16 | 17–16 | – | #167 of 351 · 41.85 |
| 2014–15 | 8–22 | – | #309 of 351 · -28.09 |
| 2013–14 | 17–17 | – | #221 of 351 · 16.35 |
| 2012–13 | 14–16 | – | #233 of 347 · 1.71 |
| 2011–12 | 16–14 | – | #216 of 345 · 14.23 |
| 2010–11 | 19–15 | – | #245 of 346 · 0.43 |