Northwestern State
Southland · 1–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -12.6 avg | × 33% | -4.2 |
| Opponents faced | +3.1 avg | × 33% | +1.0 |
| Preseason prior | -12.4 | × 67% | -8.2 |
| Power | -11.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Baylor | L 65–87 | -32.6 | +10.6 | -0.3 |
| 2 | at | Mississippi State | L 44–82 | -28.7 | -9.3 | -1.7 |
| 2 | at | Murray State | L 71–93 | -20.8 | -1.2 | -1.3 |
| 3 | vs | Millsaps non-D1 | W 77–49 | +24.7 | +3.3 | +0.1 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | -8.2 | |||||
| Power | -11.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Little Rock | -5.0 | 33% |
| 4 | vs | UT Arlington | -4.2 | 35% |
| 5 | vs | West Florida | +6.9 | 74% |
| 7 | at | Grand Canyon | -29.8 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #70 in 2005–06. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 10–22 | #300 of 365 · -10.36 | – |
| 2024–25 | 16–16 | #279 of 364 · -8.08 | – |
| 2023–24 | 9–23 | #325 of 362 · -12.21 | – |
| 2022–23 | 22–11 | #230 of 363 · -4.04 | – |
| 2021–22 | 9–23 | #323 of 358 · -11.67 | – |
| 2020–21 | 11–18 | #284 of 347 · -8.57 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–15 | – | #265 of 353 · -7.61 |
| 2018–19 | 8–20 | – | #339 of 353 · -76.18 |
| 2017–18 | 4–25 | – | #342 of 351 · -72.97 |
| 2016–17 | 13–16 | – | #281 of 351 · -12.32 |
| 2015–16 | 8–20 | – | #325 of 351 · -46.01 |
| 2014–15 | 19–13 | – | #188 of 351 · 28.06 |
| 2013–14 | 17–14 | – | #150 of 351 · 44.94 |
| 2012–13 | 19–8 | – | #116 of 347 · 53.25 |
| 2011–12 | 16–16 | – | #212 of 345 · 16.45 |
| 2010–11 | 18–14 | – | #239 of 346 · 3.33 |
| 2009–10 | 10–19 | – | #296 of 335 · -29.26 |
| 2008–09 | 11–20 | – | #308 of 330 · -47.02 |
| 2007–08 | 15–18 | – | #263 of 328 · -14.05 |
| 2006–07 | 17–15 | – | #137 of 326 · 44.62 |
| 2005–06 | 26–8 | – | #70 of 326 · 86.52 |
| 2004–05 | 20–12 | – | #86 of 326 · 70.58 |