The MRI
2026–27 · Week 3

Oral Roberts

Summit · 1–2

Power-9.2#282 of 365
Résumé-0.64#381 · wins above average
Movement+13up from #295 last week
Best winNorthwestern Oklahoma State (94–39)
Worst lossCentral Arkansas (55–85)
Schedule faced-7.6 avg opponent
Schedule ahead-5.8 avg opponent
Returning production52% of last season's win shares · #35 of 364
Incoming production1.3 win shares from other schools' players
Recruiting class#144 in the country

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.

PartValueWeightAdds
Margin counted+2.0 avg× 27%+0.6
Opponents faced-7.6 avg× 27%-2.1
Preseason prior-10.6× 73%-7.7
Power-9.2

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

WkOpponentResult ExpectedPerfAdds
2 at Central Arkansas L 55–85 -10.6 -19.4 -2.8
2 vs Northwestern Oklahoma State non-D1 W 94–39 +27.0 +28.0 +1.0
3 at Tulsa L 71–80 -20.8 +11.8 +0.3
Preseason prior (73% of the rating)-7.7
Power-9.2

Remaining schedule

WkOpponent ProjectedWin prob
3 vs Oklahoma City non-D1 +27.0 99%
4 at SMU -26.5 1%
4 vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -2.4 41%
5 at UT Arlington -7.9 24%
5 vs Missouri State -0.6 48%
6 at Creighton -25.0 1%
11 vs South Dakota +6.2 72%
11 vs South Dakota State -5.8 30%

Season by season

Best finish: #45 in 2004–05. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

25 1 400 2004–05 (MRI Classic): #45 of 326 (25-8)2005–06 (MRI Classic): #80 of 326 (21-12)2006–07 (MRI Classic): #73 of 326 (23-11)2007–08 (MRI Classic): #60 of 328 (24-9)2008–09 (MRI Classic): #121 of 330 (16-15)2009–10 (MRI Classic): #110 of 335 (20-13)2010–11 (MRI Classic): #124 of 346 (19-16)2011–12 (MRI Classic): #51 of 345 (27-7)2012–13 (MRI Classic): #125 of 347 (17-14)2013–14 (MRI Classic): #140 of 351 (17-16)2014–15 (MRI Classic): #191 of 351 (19-15)2015–16 (MRI Classic): #210 of 351 (14-17)2016–17 (MRI Classic): #289 of 351 (8-22)2017–18 (MRI Classic): #260 of 351 (11-21)2018–19 (MRI Classic): #319 of 353 (9-21)2019–20 (MRI Classic): #134 of 353 (13-14)2020–21 (MRI 2.0): #104 of 347 (18-11)2021–22 (MRI 2.0): #120 of 358 (19-12)2022–23 (MRI 2.0): #69 of 363 (30-5)2023–24 (MRI 2.0): #239 of 362 (12-19)2024–25 (MRI 2.0): #315 of 364 (7-23)2025–26 (MRI 2.0): #319 of 365 (10-23) MRI 2.0Classic 2004–05 2025–26

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

SeasonRec MRI 2.0MRI Classic
2025–26 10–23 #319 of 365 · -12.13 –
2024–25 7–23 #315 of 364 · -11.03 –
2023–24 12–19 #239 of 362 · -4.56 –
2022–23 30–5 #69 of 363 · 9.60 –
2021–22 19–12 #120 of 358 · 3.86 –
2020–21 18–11 #104 of 347 · 5.44 –
2019–20 13–14 – #134 of 353 · 46.67
2018–19 9–21 – #319 of 353 · -43.88
2017–18 11–21 – #260 of 351 · -2.77
2016–17 8–22 – #289 of 351 · -19.37
2015–16 14–17 – #210 of 351 · 16.29
2014–15 19–15 – #191 of 351 · 27.30
2013–14 17–16 – #140 of 351 · 47.32
2012–13 17–14 – #125 of 347 · 50.21
2011–12 27–7 – #51 of 345 · 102.56
2010–11 19–16 – #124 of 346 · 56.83
2009–10 20–13 – #110 of 335 · 63.77
2008–09 16–15 – #121 of 330 · 56.96
2007–08 24–9 – #60 of 328 · 92.87
2006–07 23–11 – #73 of 326 · 86.78
2005–06 21–12 – #80 of 326 · 78.01
2004–05 25–8 – #45 of 326 · 100.76