Central Arkansas
UAC · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +13.8 avg | × 27% | +3.8 |
| Opponents faced | -12.8 avg | × 27% | -3.5 |
| Preseason prior | -2.5 | × 73% | -1.8 |
| Power | -1.5 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Oral Roberts | W 85–55 | +10.6 | +19.4 | +1.8 |
| 2 | at | Ole Miss | L 60–92 | -21.8 | -10.2 | -1.2 |
| 3 | vs | Ecclesia non-D1 | W 127–54 | +34.6 | +38.4 | -0.3 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -1.8 | |||||
| Power | -1.5 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Arkansas | -26.2 | 1% |
| 4 | at | Oklahoma State | -20.8 | 3% |
| 4 | at | Jacksonville | +1.9 | 57% |
| 5 | at | North Florida | +7.7 | 76% |
| 5 | vs | Southwestern Christian non-D1 | +34.6 | 100% |
| 7 | at | Colorado | -12.8 | 12% |
| 11 | at | Tarleton State | +0.1 | 50% |
| 11 | at | UT Arlington | -0.2 | 49% |
Season by season
Best finish: #194 in 2025–26. 16 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 22–12 | #194 of 365 · -2.19 | – |
| 2024–25 | 9–24 | #348 of 364 · -15.42 | – |
| 2023–24 | 9–23 | #341 of 362 · -14.63 | – |
| 2022–23 | 9–22 | #337 of 363 · -12.84 | – |
| 2021–22 | 11–20 | #314 of 358 · -11.16 | – |
| 2020–21 | 5–19 | #302 of 347 · -10.00 | – |
| 2019–20 | 9–21 | – | #291 of 353 · -24.09 |
| 2018–19 | 11–19 | – | #318 of 353 · -41.81 |
| 2017–18 | 18–17 | – | #200 of 351 · 25.76 |
| 2016–17 | 8–24 | – | #324 of 351 · -44.15 |
| 2015–16 | 7–21 | – | #316 of 351 · -36.82 |
| 2014–15 | 2–27 | – | #350 of 351 · -127.21 |
| 2013–14 | 8–21 | – | #328 of 351 · -49.47 |
| 2012–13 | 11–17 | – | #259 of 347 · -15.95 |
| 2011–12 | 8–21 | – | #316 of 345 · -50.61 |
| 2010–11 | 5–24 | – | #330 of 346 · -62.85 |