UMBC
Am. East · 2–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +2.8 avg | × 33% | +0.9 |
| Opponents faced | -9.1 avg | × 33% | -3.0 |
| Preseason prior | -5.5 | × 67% | -3.7 |
| Power | -5.8 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | George Mason | L 54–82 | -17.3 | -10.7 | -1.6 |
| 2 | at | Marist | L 80–88 | -3.2 | -4.8 | -0.8 |
| 3 | vs | McDaniel non-D1 | W 91–61 | +30.3 | -0.3 | +0.3 |
| 3 | vs | Morgan State | W 85–70 | +11.5 | +3.5 | +0.0 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | -3.7 | |||||
| Power | -5.8 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Towson | -8.5 | 22% |
| 4 | vs | Iona | +2.2 | 58% |
| 4 | at | Ohio State | -25.8 | 1% |
| 4 | vs | Lancaster Bible College non-D1 | +30.3 | 100% |
| 5 | at | Iowa | -27.2 | 1% |
| 5 | at | George Washington | -18.0 | 5% |
| 6 | at | Army | +1.6 | 56% |
| 9 | at | Grand Canyon | -24.2 | 1% |
Season by season
Best finish: #97 in 2007–08. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 24–9 | #178 of 365 · -1.30 | – |
| 2024–25 | 13–19 | #271 of 364 · -7.42 | – |
| 2023–24 | 11–21 | #285 of 362 · -7.65 | – |
| 2022–23 | 18–14 | #237 of 363 · -4.54 | – |
| 2021–22 | 18–14 | #219 of 358 · -3.18 | – |
| 2020–21 | 14–6 | #144 of 347 · 1.57 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–17 | – | #257 of 353 · -4.41 |
| 2018–19 | 18–13 | – | #166 of 353 · 32.17 |
| 2017–18 | 25–10 | – | #108 of 351 · 65.55 |
| 2016–17 | 21–13 | – | #150 of 351 · 44.79 |
| 2015–16 | 7–25 | – | #329 of 351 · -52.00 |
| 2014–15 | 4–26 | – | #345 of 351 · -84.75 |
| 2013–14 | 9–21 | – | #317 of 351 · -39.16 |
| 2012–13 | 7–23 | – | #310 of 347 · -40.77 |
| 2011–12 | 4–26 | – | #340 of 345 · -90.67 |
| 2010–11 | 5–25 | – | #339 of 346 · -82.42 |
| 2009–10 | 4–26 | – | #329 of 335 · -77.56 |
| 2008–09 | 15–17 | – | #237 of 330 · 1.22 |
| 2007–08 | 23–9 | – | #97 of 328 · 70.72 |
| 2006–07 | 12–19 | – | #272 of 326 · -17.77 |
| 2005–06 | 10–19 | – | #247 of 326 · -4.05 |
| 2004–05 | 11–18 | – | #286 of 326 · -23.68 |