Morgan State
MEAC · 3–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +19.3 avg | × 33% | +6.4 |
| Opponents faced | -28.9 avg | × 33% | -9.6 |
| Preseason prior | -16.7 | × 67% | -11.1 |
| Power | -14.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Towson | -17.1 | 6% |
| 3 | N | Towson | -14.1 | 10% |
| 4 | at | North Carolina A&T | -5.8 | 30% |
| 4 | vs | Cornell | -8.0 | 24% |
| 5 | vs | Mount St. Mary's | -1.0 | 46% |
| 5 | vs | Manhattan | +2.6 | 59% |
| 8 | at | Maryland | -27.8 | 1% |
Season by season
Best finish: #84 in 2009–10. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 14–16 | #349 of 365 · -16.34 | – |
| 2024–25 | 14–18 | #313 of 364 · -10.98 | – |
| 2023–24 | 11–20 | #327 of 362 · -12.49 | – |
| 2022–23 | 15–16 | #282 of 363 · -7.50 | – |
| 2021–22 | 13–15 | #268 of 358 · -7.03 | – |
| 2020–21 | 14–8 | #204 of 347 · -2.62 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–16 | – | #256 of 353 · -3.83 |
| 2018–19 | 8–20 | – | #288 of 353 · -21.59 |
| 2017–18 | 13–19 | – | #264 of 351 · -4.34 |
| 2016–17 | 14–16 | – | #264 of 351 · -5.76 |
| 2015–16 | 9–22 | – | #285 of 351 · -18.15 |
| 2014–15 | 7–24 | – | #334 of 351 · -54.94 |
| 2013–14 | 15–16 | – | #196 of 351 · 28.77 |
| 2012–13 | 17–15 | – | #193 of 347 · 20.68 |
| 2011–12 | 9–18 | – | #238 of 345 · 4.46 |
| 2010–11 | 17–14 | – | #175 of 346 · 33.41 |
| 2009–10 | 27–10 | – | #84 of 335 · 82.18 |
| 2008–09 | 23–12 | – | #87 of 330 · 75.46 |
| 2007–08 | 22–11 | – | #85 of 328 · 75.04 |
| 2006–07 | 13–18 | – | #264 of 326 · -13.93 |
| 2005–06 | 4–26 | – | #325 of 326 · -142.53 |
| 2004–05 | 14–16 | – | #269 of 326 · -12.34 |