James Madison
Sun Belt · 8–2 · 5–2 in conference · MRI Classic #20
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
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Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds1.8% if they win · 0.5% if not +1.3 pts
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 10 games, w is 71%, so the preseason prior is 29% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +20.6 avg | × 71% | +14.7 |
| Opponents faced | -13.4 avg | × 71% | -9.6 |
| Preseason prior | -0.2 | × 29% | +0.0 |
| Power | +5.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Liberty | W 20–13 | +5.1 | +1.9 | +0.7 |
| 2 | vs | Wagner FCS | W 87–3 | +41.8 | +42.2 | +0.1 |
| 3 | at | San Diego State | W 26–13 | +9.2 | +3.8 | +0.9 |
| 4 | at | Old Dominion | W 46–20 | +17.9 | +8.1 | +1.3 |
| 5 | vs | Marshall | W 45–17 | +20.9 | +7.1 | +1.2 |
| 6 | at | Georgia Southern | W 27–24 | +5.9 | -2.9 | +0.2 |
| 7 | vs | Georgia State | W 49–22 | +17.1 | +9.9 | +1.4 |
| 8 | at | Appalachian State | L 31–34 | +13.6 | -16.6 | -0.9 |
| 9 | vs | Troy | L 21–24 | +20.4 | -23.4 | -1.4 |
| 10 | at | Southern Miss | W 54–23 | +17.6 | +13.4 | +1.6 |
| Preseason prior (29% of the rating) | +0.0 | |||||
| Power | +5.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | UConn | +8.0 | 69% |
| 13 | vs | Coastal Carolina | +21.7 | 90% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curt Cignetti | 2022–2023 | 19-4 | +14.5 |
| Bob Chesney | 2024–2025 | 21-6 | +11.1 |
| Billy Napier | 2026 | 8-2 | +4.1 |
Season by season
Best finish: #32 in 2025. 4 seasons rated. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 75 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Hover a point for the season.