Liberty
Conference USA · 8–1 · 5–0 in conference · MRI Classic #14
Who to root for this week
The games this week that move its playoff odds most, and the side to cheer. Other teams’ games only; its own game is in the schedule below. How these are worked out.
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Oregon Stateat
Boise State
Playoff odds2.0% if they win · 0.5% if not +1.5 pts
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +22.9 avg | × 69% | +15.8 |
| Opponents faced | -14.6 avg | × 69% | -10.1 |
| Preseason prior | -8.9 | × 31% | -2.8 |
| Power | +2.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | James Madison | L 13–20 | -5.1 | -1.9 | -0.1 |
| 2 | vs | Gardner-Webb FCS | W 24–23 | +39.6 | -38.6 | -1.9 |
| 3 | vs | Ball State | W 51–15 | +28.8 | +7.2 | +1.0 |
| 4 | at | Coastal Carolina | W 34–17 | +13.5 | +3.5 | +0.8 |
| 5 | at | Delaware | W 30–14 | +10.4 | +5.6 | +1.0 |
| 6 | vs | Sam Houston | W 35–3 | +28.0 | +4.0 | +0.8 |
| 8 | at | Kennesaw State | W 34–6 | +13.7 | +14.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | vs | FIU | W 49–10 | +17.9 | +21.1 | +2.0 |
| 10 | at | New Mexico State | W 30–14 | +18.4 | -2.4 | +0.4 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -2.8 | |||||
| Power | +2.9 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | vs | Middle Tennessee | +23.1 | 92% |
| 12 | vs | Western Kentucky | +19.2 | 88% |
| 13 | at | Missouri State | +15.4 | 82% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Gill | 2018 | 6-6 | -0.8 |
| Hugh Freeze | 2019–2022 | 34-15 | +4.9 |
| Jamey Chadwell | 2023–2026 | 33-14 | -0.4 |
Season by season
Best finish: #53 in 2023. 8 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4–8 | #103 of 136 · -11.66 | – |
| 2024 | 8–4 | #95 of 134 · -6.96 | – |
| 2023 | 13–1 | #53 of 133 · 3.23 | – |
| 2022 | 8–5 | #90 of 131 · -5.63 | – |
| 2021 | 8–5 | #70 of 130 · 1.35 | – |
| 2020 | 10–1 | #73 of 128 · -1.12 | – |
| 2019 | 8–5 | #101 of 130 · -9.61 | #81 of 130 · 8.36 |
| 2018 | 6–6 | #109 of 130 · -15.27 | #98 of 130 · -10.71 |