Week 11 slate
67 games with an FBS team. The model's line and win chance for each, the market's number beside it (DraftKings), and what the result does to the playoff picture. Scores and live win chances appear while games are on.
Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff; Live is its chance now,
from the score and the time left. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict; Market
is the current line, with the opener beneath it when it has moved. Edge is the gap between the model
and the opening number and the side the model likes more. The betting page tracks the large ones; these are
tracked, not recommended.
Slates: Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1
Partial
Expected upsets this week: 20.9
Upset watch
From the second half on: a team the model gave 25% or less is leading, or a Top 25 team is trailing an unranked one.
Most riding on it
Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET
Model IU −5.9Market IU −8.5
Indiana playoff odds
L 36% now 63% W 78%
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ET
Model OSU −17.7Market OSU −14.0
Ohio State playoff odds
L 20% now 56% W 62%
Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET
Model ORE −14.6Market ORE −10.5
Oregon playoff odds
L 18% now 51% W 58%
Sat, Nov 14 · 4:15 PM ET
Model MISS −2.9Market OU −1.5
Ole Miss playoff odds
L 16% now 39% W 56%
Sat, Nov 14 · 3:00 PM ET
Model TENN −2.2Market TENN −2.5
Tennessee playoff odds
L 23% now 43% W 59%
Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ET
Model UCLA −12.5Market UCLA −10.0
UCLA playoff odds
L 41% now 68% W 76%
Sat, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ET
Model TEX −1.6Market LSU −4.0
LSU playoff odds
L 21% now 37% W 56%
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM ET
Model BOIS −13.6Market BOIS −14.5
Boise State playoff odds
L 58% now 80% W 86%
Sat, Nov 14 · 6:15 PM ET
Model UK −0.1Market UK −3.0
Kentucky playoff odds
L 9.0% now 23% W 36%
Sat, Nov 14 · 3:30 PM ET
Model ND −39.2Market ND −29.5
Notre Dame playoff odds
L 68% now 94% W 94%
The 10 games this week that move a team’s playoff chance most, from the season simulation . The bar runs from that team’s chance with a loss to its chance with a win; the tick is where it stood before kickoff. These games carry a red stripe in the lists below.
All games Top 25 Playoff stakes Key games
No games match.
Fri, Nov 13
Time Game Pre
Score Live
Model Market Edge
Playoff stake
Prime time 2 games
7:00 PM
43%
PITT −2.9
PITT −3.5open PITT −3.0
0.1 → FSU
Little playoff impact
9:00 PM
22%
UCLA −12.5
UCLA −10.0open UCLA −12.5
0.0 → ILL
UCLA playoff odds
L 41% now 68% W 76%
Late night 1 game
10:15 PM
82%
HOU −14.8
HOU −8.5open HOU −10.5
4.3 → HOU
HOU playoff odds
L 0.5% now 8.8% W 11%
Sat, Nov 14
Time Game Pre
Score Live
Model Market Edge
Playoff stake
Early 17 games
12:00 PM
14%
OSU −17.7
OSU −14.0open OSU −9.5
8.2 → OSU
OSU playoff odds
L 20% now 56% W 62%
12:00 PM
12%
MIA −19.3
MIA −13.5open MIA −21.0
1.7 → DUKE
MIA playoff odds
L 79% now 92% W 94%
12:00 PM
49%
SMU −0.4
SMU −1.5open WAKE −3.5
3.9 → SMU
WAKE playoff odds
L 7.5% now 20% W 33%
12:00 PM
69%
WIS −8.3
WIS −8.5open WIS −7.5
0.9 → WIS
WIS playoff odds
L <0.1% now 3.2% W 4.7%
12:00 PM
45%
MSST −2.1
AUB −2.5open AUB −3.5
5.6 → MSST
Little playoff impact
12:00 PM
69%
JMU −8.0
JMU −4.5open JMU −1.5
6.5 → JMU
Little playoff impact
12:00 PM
40%
ISU −4.0
ISU −3.0open ISU −1.5
2.5 → ISU
Little playoff impact
12:00 PM
44%
NCSU −2.5
SYR −3.0open SYR −1.5
4.0 → NCSU
Little playoff impact
12:30 PM
82%
NEB −15.2
NEB −14.5open NEB −12.5
2.7 → NEB
Little playoff impact
12:30 PM
14%
CLEM −18.1
CLEM −14.0open CLEM −13.5
4.5 → CLEM
Little playoff impact
12:45 PM
94%
ALA −25.0
ALA −17.5open ALA −19.5
5.5 → ALA
ALA playoff odds
L 86% now 98% W 98%
1:00 PM
81%
ECU −14.5
ECU −11.5open ECU −13.5
1.0 → ECU
Little playoff impact
1:00 PM
44%
TEM −2.4
TEM −2.5
0.0 → UAB
Little playoff impact
1:00 PM
49%
CCU −0.4
CCU −1.5
1.1 → ARST
Little playoff impact
2:00 PM
31%
TCU −8.4
TCU −11.5open TCU −9.5
1.1 → KSU
Little playoff impact
2:00 PM
61%
TULN −4.7
RICE −2.5open TULN −1.5
3.2 → TULN
Little playoff impact
2:00 PM
62%
KENN −5.2
KENN −7.0open KENN −7.5
2.3 → SHSU
Little playoff impact
Afternoon 23 games
3:00 PM
55%
TENN −2.2
TENN −2.5open TA&M −8.5
10.7 → TENN
TENN playoff odds
L 23% now 43% W 59%
3:00 PM
39%
DEL −4.5
DEL −4.5open DEL −6.5
2.0 → FIU
Little playoff impact
3:00 PM
36%
MOST −6.0
MOST −1.5
4.6 → MOST
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
10%
UGA −20.9
UGA −16.5open UGA −12.5
8.4 → UGA
MIZ playoff odds
L 2.3% now 4.2% W 20%
3:30 PM
0.9%
ND −39.2
ND −29.5open ND −31.5
7.7 → ND
ND playoff odds
L 68% now 94% W 94%
3:30 PM
19%
ORE −14.6
ORE −10.5open ORE −13.5
1.1 → ORE
ORE playoff odds
L 18% now 51% W 58%
3:30 PM
36%
IU −5.9
IU −8.5open IU −10.0
4.1 → USC
IU playoff odds
L 36% now 63% W 78%
3:30 PM
34%
BYU −6.6
BYU −7.5
0.9 → BAY
BYU playoff odds
L 2.2% now 16% W 23%
3:30 PM
8.1%
LIB −23.1
LIB −21.0open LIB −20.5
2.6 → LIB
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
42%
UCF −3.5
UCF −3.0open UCF −2.5
1.0 → UCF
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
25%
UVA −10.9
UVA −10.5open UVA −12.5
1.6 → CAL
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
34%
TLSA −6.9
TLSA −5.5
1.4 → TLSA
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
55%
GASO −2.2
GASO −6.0open GASO −5.5
3.3 → GAST
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
60%
JXST −4.4
JXST −7.5open JXST −6.0
1.6 → WKU
Little playoff impact
3:30 PM
70%
NEV −8.8
NEV −6.0open NEV −10.5
1.7 → NIU
Little playoff impact
4:00 PM
33%
TXST −7.4
TXST −9.5open TXST −7.0
0.4 → TXST
Little playoff impact
4:15 PM
57%
MISS −2.9
OU −1.5open OU −4.0
6.9 → MISS
MISS playoff odds
L 16% now 39% W 56%
4:15 PM
58%
WASH −3.5
WASH −3.5
0.0 → WASH
Little playoff impact
5:00 PM
13%
LT −18.9
LT −17.5open LT −18.5
0.4 → LT
Little playoff impact
5:30 PM
47%
WVU −1.1
WVU −3.0open WVU −2.5
1.4 → KU
Little playoff impact
6:00 PM
20%
BOIS −13.6
BOIS −14.5open BOIS −4.5
9.1 → BOIS
BOIS playoff odds
L 58% now 80% W 86%
6:00 PM
46%
MRSH −1.8
APP −1.5open APP −2.5
4.3 → MRSH
Little playoff impact
6:15 PM
50%
UK −0.1
UK −3.0open UK −1.5
1.4 → FLA
UK playoff odds
L 9.0% now 23% W 36%
Prime time 13 games
7:00 PM
61%
LOU −4.6
LOU −3.5open LOU −2.5
2.1 → LOU
LOU playoff odds
L 0.2% now 4.9% W 8.0%
7:00 PM
25%
PSU −11.2
PSU −9.5open PSU −7.0
4.2 → PSU
Little playoff impact
7:00 PM
24%
AF −11.6
AF −12.5open AF −10.5
1.1 → AF
Little playoff impact
7:00 PM
34%
USA −6.6
USA −3.0open USA −2.5
4.1 → USA
Little playoff impact
7:30 PM
54%
TEX −1.6
LSU −4.0open TEX −2.5
0.9 → LSU
LSU playoff odds
L 21% now 37% W 56%
7:30 PM
62%
UTAH −5.3
UTAH −2.5open UTAH −1.5
3.8 → UTAH
UTAH playoff odds
L 67% now 82% W 90%
7:30 PM
14%
IOWA −18.0
IOWA −17.5open IOWA −16.5
1.5 → IOWA
IOWA playoff odds
L 2.5% now 17% W 19%
7:30 PM
18%
UNM −14.8
UNM −14.5open UNM −13.5
1.3 → UNM
UNM playoff odds
L 0.5% now 5.8% W 7.0%
7:30 PM
18%
VT −15.0
VT −15.5open VT −16.5
1.5 → STAN
Little playoff impact
7:45 PM
78%
SC −12.7
SC −7.5open SC −8.5
4.2 → SC
SC playoff odds
L 1.6% now 9.8% W 12%
9:00 PM
47%
UTSA −1.3
UNT −2.5open UNT −1.5
2.8 → UTSA
UNT playoff odds
L 0.9% now 3.5% W 6.6%
9:30 PM
60%
TTU −4.1
OKST −3.5open TTU −15.5
11.4 → OKST
TTU playoff odds
L 8.6% now 24% W 35%
9:30 PM
46%
SDSU −1.6
USU −2.5
4.1 → SDSU
Little playoff impact
Late night 3 games
10:00 PM
71%
WYO −9.3
WYO −7.5open WYO −10.0
0.7 → UTEP
Little playoff impact
10:30 PM
31%
WSU −8.2
WSU −8.5open WSU −6.5
1.7 → WSU
Little playoff impact
11:00 PM
63%
NDSU −5.5
NDSU −6.5open NDSU −9.5
4.0 → HAW
Little playoff impact
Already played this week
Day Final Model (entering the week) Called it
Model miss Market miss Tue, Nov 10 Western Michigan 42, Akron 14
Western Michigan −16.8
✓ 11.2 12.5 Tue, Nov 10 Kent State 28, Bowling Green 33
Bowling Green −3.9
✓ 1.1 1.5 Tue, Nov 10 Ohio 17, Miami (OH) 34
Ohio −3.4
✗ 20.4 18.5 Wed, Nov 11 UMass 0, Toledo 24
Toledo −18.2
✓ 5.8 10.0 Wed, Nov 11 Sacramento State 7, Central Michigan 28
Central Michigan −13.1
✓ 7.9 3.5 Wed, Nov 11 Buffalo 28, Ball State 7
Buffalo −1.4
✓ 19.6 19.5 Thu, Nov 12 Memphis 52, USF 41
USF −2.9
✗ 13.9 6.5 Thu, Nov 12 Louisiana 42, Louisiana-Monroe 21
Louisiana −17.0
✓ 4.0 11.0
Chaos so far Partial
#23Wake Forest@
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