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2026 · Week 11

Season simulation

The rest of the 2026 schedule played out 10,000 times from the ratings as of Week 11: standings settled, the ten conference championship games played, a committee ranking produced, the 12-team field picked under this year's rules, and the bracket played through. The columns are how often each thing happened.

Playoff is making the field — the four power-conference champions, the best team from the other six conferences, Notre Dame if it is ranked in the top 12, and the highest-ranked rest. Bye is a top-four seed. Title is winning the whole thing. Ratings are treated as estimates, not facts, so early in the season the range is wide.

Checked against history: run as of weeks 3, 6, 9 and 12 of 2014–2025, its chance of a top-12 finish scored a Brier of 0.035 against 0.083 for knowing nothing but the base rate. How it is built and how it did.

Every team

#TeamRec.Proj. LeftSched. left Conf. titlePlayoffByeTitle Δ
1 Georgia SEC 8–1 10.7–1.3 3 +8.3 56% 98% 79% 27% +0.2
2 Alabama SEC 7–2 9.9–2.1 3 -7.3 29% 98% 70% 19% +0.4
3 Texas SEC 7–2 9.2–2.8 3 +13.5 9.1% 94% 61% 13% +0.2
4 Notre Dame FBS Independent 8–1 10.8–1.2 3 +1.3 – 94% 35% 14% -0.2
5 Miami (FL) ACC 8–1 10.8–1.2 3 +2.0 77% 92% 41% 8.8% 0
6 Utah Big 12 9–0 11.3–0.7 3 +6.0 60% 82% 32% 3.0% -0.4
7 Boise State Pac-12 8–1 9.7–1.3 2 -3.2 76% 80% <0.1% 0.1% +0.6
8 UCLA Big Ten 9–0 10.9–1.1 3 +11.9 34% 68% 23% 1.2% -0.4
9 Indiana Big Ten 8–1 10.3–1.7 3 +8.7 34% 63% 18% 1.9% -0.5
10 Ohio State Big Ten 6–3 8.5–3.5 3 +11.7 11% 56% 9.7% 4.8% -0.8
11 Oregon Big Ten 6–3 8.5–3.5 3 +6.9 9.4% 51% 7.2% 2.0% +1.3
12 Tennessee SEC 7–2 8.9–3.1 3 +13.9 4.2% 43% 7.1% 1.4% +0.1
13 Ole Miss SEC 6–3 8.4–3.6 3 -3.2 0.3% 39% 3.2% 1.3% -0.1
14 LSU SEC 6–3 7.8–4.2 3 +16.8 0.2% 37% 4.8% 2.0% -0.6
15 USC Big Ten 7–2 8.7–3.3 3 +12.1 3.7% 26% 3.1% 0.4% +1.2
16 Texas Tech Big 12 8–1 9.8–2.2 3 +8.2 18% 24% 1.3% 0.1% +0.1
17 Kentucky SEC 7–2 8.4–3.6 3 +14.3 1.2% 23% 2.2% 0.1% -0.2
18 Wake Forest ACC 8–1 10.0–2.0 3 +4.8 13% 20% 0.8% 0.1% -1.1
19 Iowa Big Ten 7–2 9.1–2.9 3 +6.9 4.0% 17% 0.9% 0.1% +0.7
20 BYU Big 12 7–2 9.2–2.8 3 +4.2 7.0% 16% 0.7% 0.2% +0.4
21 South Carolina SEC 6–3 7.6–4.4 3 +14.0 0.1% 9.8% 0.5% 0.1% -0.3
22 Houston Big 12 7–2 9.1–2.9 3 +1.7 5.5% 8.8% 0.2% <0.1% 0
23 Oklahoma SEC 5–4 6.4–5.6 3 +17.5 <0.1% 7.0% 0.2% 0.1% -0.3
24 New Mexico Mountain West 8–1 10.4–1.6 3 -7.8 72% 5.8% <0.1% <0.1% -0.6
25 SMU ACC 7–2 8.5–3.5 3 +11.4 5.0% 5.2% <0.1% <0.1% +0.2
26 Arizona Big 12 7–2 8.9–3.1 3 +7.3 3.9% 5.0% <0.1% <0.1% +0.1
27 Louisville ACC 6–3 7.8–4.2 3 +8.0 4.0% 4.9% <0.1% <0.1% -0.2
28 Missouri SEC 6–3 7.3–4.7 3 +19.9 <0.1% 4.2% 0.1% <0.1% -0.5
29 North Texas American 7–2 9.0–3.0 3 -5.8 41% 3.5% <0.1% <0.1% -0.4
30 UTSA American 7–2 8.9–3.1 3 -3.2 14% 3.5% <0.1% <0.1% -0.4
31 Florida SEC 5–4 6.9–5.1 3 +6.8 <0.1% 3.4% 0.1% <0.1% -0.1
32 Wisconsin Big Ten 6–3 8.1–4.0 3 +0.7 2.8% 3.2% <0.1% <0.1% 0
33 Memphis American 8–2 9.5–2.5 2 -7.5 29% 3.0% <0.1% <0.1% +1.5
34 Oklahoma State Big 12 6–3 7.7–4.3 3 +5.2 2.6% 2.6% <0.1% <0.1% +0.3
35 Baylor Big 12 6–3 7.3–4.7 3 +13.8 2.4% 2.5% <0.1% <0.1% +0.3
36 Louisiana Tech Sun Belt 7–2 9.2–2.8 3 -10.1 49% 1.6% <0.1% <0.1% -0.2
37 James Madison Sun Belt 8–2 9.6–2.4 2 -9.8 28% 0.9% <0.1% <0.1% 0
38 Illinois Big Ten 6–3 7.0–5.0 3 +14.9 0.4% 0.8% <0.1% <0.1% +0.1
39 Liberty Conference USA 8–1 10.6–1.4 3 -15.3 73% 0.8% <0.1% <0.1% -0.4
40 Duke ACC 7–2 8.1–3.9 3 +16.1 0.5% 0.7% <0.1% <0.1% +0.1
41 Texas State Pac-12 5–4 6.5–4.5 2 -3.6 16% 0.6% <0.1% <0.1% 0
42 Northwestern Big Ten 6–3 7.4–4.6 3 +12.7 <0.1% 0.4% <0.1% <0.1% 0
43 Clemson ACC 6–3 7.6–4.4 3 +6.7 <0.1% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% -0.1
44 Auburn SEC 5–4 6.5–5.5 3 +1.7 <0.1% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% 0
45 Texas A&M SEC 4–5 5.2–6.8 3 +21.6 <0.1% 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% 0
46 Oregon State Pac-12 5–4 5.9–5.1 2 +2.8 4.5% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% -0.1
47 Michigan Big Ten 5–4 5.7–6.3 3 +22.1 <0.1% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
48 North Dakota State Mountain West 7–2 9.2–2.8 3 -16.5 19% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
49 Army American 5–4 7.1–4.9 3 -8.5 16% 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
50 Washington Big Ten 5–4 6.0–6.0 3 +14.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
51 North Carolina ACC 5–4 6.7–5.3 3 +4.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
52 Air Force Mountain West 7–2 8.9–3.1 3 -10.9 2.2% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
53 Nebraska Big Ten 5–4 6.4–5.6 3 +12.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
54 Penn State Big Ten 5–4 7.4–4.6 3 -1.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
55 Minnesota Big Ten 5–4 5.9–6.1 3 +11.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
56 UCF Big 12 5–4 6.7–5.3 3 -1.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
57 Florida Atlantic American 6–3 7.2–4.8 3 -2.1 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
58 Florida State ACC 4–5 5.6–6.4 3 +6.5 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
59 Pittsburgh ACC 6–3 7.6–4.4 3 +4.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
60 Fresno State Pac-12 5–4 6.2–4.8 2 -4.1 1.0% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
61 Arizona State Big 12 5–4 6.0–6.0 3 +6.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
62 Toledo MAC 8–2 9.4–2.6 2 -13.0 29% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
63 Louisiana Sun Belt 7–3 8.4–3.6 2 -11.3 7.6% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
64 Mississippi State SEC 4–5 5.7–6.3 3 -0.9 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
65 TCU Big 12 4–5 5.2–6.8 3 +11.9 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
66 Virginia Tech ACC 6–3 7.5–4.5 3 +5.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
67 Vanderbilt SEC 4–5 4.4–7.6 3 +22.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
68 Michigan State Big Ten 3–6 4.2–7.8 3 +8.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
69 USF American 6–4 7.4–4.6 2 -7.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
70 Iowa State Big 12 4–5 5.6–6.4 3 +0.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
71 Arkansas SEC 3–6 3.4–8.6 3 +22.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
72 Kansas Big 12 3–6 4.0–8.0 3 +7.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
73 Kansas State Big 12 4–5 5.0–7.0 3 +6.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
74 Cincinnati Big 12 5–4 6.3–5.7 3 +3.6 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
75 Purdue Big Ten 3–6 3.6–8.4 3 +15.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
76 Virginia ACC 4–5 5.5–6.5 3 +0.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
77 Western Michigan MAC 7–3 8.6–3.4 2 -13.2 41% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
78 Syracuse ACC 4–5 5.0–7.0 3 +7.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
79 West Virginia Big 12 5–4 5.9–6.1 3 +11.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
80 NC State ACC 4–5 5.1–6.9 3 +4.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
81 Maryland Big Ten 3–6 3.7–8.3 3 +13.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
82 Tulsa American 5–4 6.9–5.1 3 -9.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
83 Georgia Southern Sun Belt 5–4 6.7–5.3 3 -7.0 15% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
84 Navy American 3–6 4.6–7.4 3 -6.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
85 Colorado Big 12 3–6 3.9–8.1 3 +4.6 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
86 East Carolina American 5–4 6.7–5.3 3 -9.6 0.7% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
87 Rutgers Big Ten 2–7 2.7–9.3 3 +8.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
88 Utah State Pac-12 4–5 4.8–6.2 2 -3.2 1.9% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
89 Jacksonville State Conference USA 7–2 8.9–3.1 3 -13.1 27% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
90 UConn FBS Independent 4–5 5.7–6.3 3 -8.0 – <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
91 UNLV Mountain West 5–4 6.5–5.5 3 -6.7 1.0% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
92 Boston College ACC 4–5 4.5–7.5 3 +18.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
93 Ohio MAC 7–3 8.3–3.7 2 -12.5 20% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
94 Georgia Tech ACC 2–7 2.3–9.7 3 +18.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
95 San Diego State Pac-12 4–5 4.6–6.4 2 +2.8 1.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
96 California ACC 3–6 4.1–7.9 3 -0.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
97 Washington State Pac-12 1–8 1.9–9.1 2 -4.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
98 Tulane American 4–5 5.2–6.8 3 -3.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
99 South Alabama Sun Belt 4–5 5.9–6.1 3 -13.1 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
100 Georgia State Sun Belt 5–4 6.4–5.6 3 -6.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
101 Stanford ACC 4–5 4.7–7.3 3 +2.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
102 Miami (OH) MAC 6–4 6.9–5.1 2 -10.7 1.8% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
103 Delaware Conference USA 4–5 5.7–6.3 3 -12.1 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
104 UAB American 5–4 5.9–6.1 3 -2.2 0.2% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
105 Arkansas State Sun Belt 4–5 5.3–6.7 3 -8.5 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
106 Temple American 2–7 3.4–8.6 3 -7.5 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
107 Central Michigan MAC 5–5 6.2–5.8 2 -18.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
108 Appalachian State Sun Belt 5–4 6.6–5.4 3 -15.1 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
109 Hawaii Mountain West 3–6 4.6–7.4 3 -13.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
110 FIU Conference USA 4–5 5.7–6.3 3 -15.4 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
111 Troy Sun Belt 4–5 5.1–6.9 3 -7.9 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
112 San Jose State Mountain West 5–5 6.0–7.0 3 -4.4 0.4% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
113 Marshall Sun Belt 5–4 6.7–5.3 3 -14.9 0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
114 Nevada Mountain West 3–6 4.5–7.5 3 -14.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
115 Colorado State Pac-12 3–6 3.5–7.5 2 -3.6 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
116 Western Kentucky Conference USA 3–6 4.1–7.9 3 -5.6 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
117 Wyoming Mountain West 6–3 7.3–4.7 3 -8.7 5.2% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
118 Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3–6 3.8–8.2 3 -2.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
119 Kennesaw State Conference USA 3–6 4.6–7.4 3 -15.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
120 Buffalo MAC 7–3 8.1–3.9 2 -17.1 7.5% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
121 Missouri State Conference USA 3–6 4.0–8.0 3 -7.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
122 Southern Miss Sun Belt 3–6 4.0–8.0 3 -8.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
123 Old Dominion Sun Belt 3–7 3.8–8.2 2 -10.8 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
124 Rice American 1–8 1.9–10.1 3 -6.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
125 Eastern Michigan MAC 4–6 4.8–7.2 2 -10.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
126 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 5–4 6.2–5.8 3 -12.5 0.3% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
127 New Mexico State Conference USA 3–6 4.2–7.8 3 -14.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
128 UMass MAC 5–5 6.1–5.9 2 -21.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
129 Bowling Green MAC 3–7 3.7–8.3 2 -10.4 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
130 Kent State MAC 3–7 3.6–8.4 2 -13.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
131 Sam Houston Conference USA 1–8 2.0–9.9 3 -14.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
132 Akron MAC 1–9 1.7–10.3 2 -16.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
133 Ball State MAC 3–7 3.4–8.6 2 -9.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
134 Charlotte American 1–8 1.4–10.6 3 -3.9 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
135 Sacramento State MAC 2–9 2.2–9.8 1 -11.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
136 Louisiana-Monroe Sun Belt 2–8 2.5–9.5 2 -12.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
137 Northern Illinois Mountain West 0–9 0.9–11.1 3 -14.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0
138 UTEP Mountain West 1–8 1.8–10.2 3 -14.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% 0

Gaining since last week

Losing since last week

Conference races

ACC Miami (FL) 77% · Wake Forest 13% · SMU 5.0%
American North Texas 41% · Memphis 29% · Army 16%
Big 12 Utah 60% · Texas Tech 18% · BYU 7.0%
Big Ten Indiana 34% · UCLA 34% · Ohio State 11%
Conference USA Liberty 73% · Jacksonville State 27% · Middle Tennessee 0.3%
MAC Western Michigan 41% · Toledo 29% · Ohio 20%
Mountain West New Mexico 72% · North Dakota State 19% · Wyoming 5.2%
Pac-12 Boise State 76% · Texas State 16% · Oregon State 4.5%
SEC Georgia 56% · Alabama 29% · Texas 9.1%
Sun Belt Louisiana Tech 49% · James Madison 28% · Georgia Southern 15%

What this does not know

It knows scores, not injuries: a starting quarterback lost next week changes a team's chances and this page will not see it until the results show it. Conference tiebreakers are simplified to a coin flip after conference wins, so a two-way tie's odds are slightly off. And the committee is modelled from what it has valued in past years — résumé far more than strength — not asked.

Deterministic for a given set of results and ratings: the same inputs give the same page, so it changes when something happened and not otherwise.