Oregon State
Pac-12 · 5–4 · 3–2 in conference · MRI Classic #53
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
Hidden HeismanBraden Atkinson · Week 3 · 2 in allHow this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +10.2 avg | × 69% | +7.1 |
| Opponents faced | -5.7 avg | × 69% | -4.0 |
| Preseason prior | -7.4 | × 31% | -2.3 |
| Power | +0.8 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Houston | L 20–33 | -14.6 | +1.6 | -0.1 |
| 2 | vs | Texas Tech | L 24–35 | -10.3 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 3 | vs | Montana FCS | W 52–17 | +37.5 | -2.5 | +0.4 |
| 4 | at | UTEP | W 33–7 | +23.5 | +2.5 | +0.6 |
| 5 | at | Colorado State | W 56–26 | +11.0 | +19.0 | +1.8 |
| 6 | vs | San Diego State | W 66–14 | +11.1 | +40.9 | +2.8 |
| 7 | vs | Washington State | W 48–30 | +11.9 | +6.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | at | Fresno State | L 22–38 | -2.8 | -13.2 | -1.3 |
| 10 | vs | Texas State | L 21–42 | -1.2 | -19.8 | -1.8 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -2.3 | |||||
| Power | +0.8 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Boise State | -13.6 | 20% |
| 12 | vs | Utah State | +9.6 | 72% |
Hidden Heisman
The week’s biggest game from outside the power conferences, from a player the Heisman odds were not talking about. How it is picked.
| Season | Wk | Player | Opponent | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | Braden Atkinson | vs Montana | 333 pass, 5 TD · 4 rush, 1 TD |
| 2026 | 2 | Jesse Legree | vs Texas Tech | 240 rece, 2 TD |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Fertig | 1978–1979 | 4-17-1 | – |
| Joe Avezzano | 1980–1984 | 6-47-2 | -2.9 |
| Dave Kragthorpe | 1985–1990 | 17-48-2 | -3.0 |
| Jerry Pettibone | 1991–1996 | 13-52-1 | -2.0 |
| Mike Riley | 1997–1998 | 8-14 | +4.0 |
| Dennis Erickson | 1999–2002 | 31-17 | +4.7 |
| Mike Riley | 2003–2014 | 85-66 | +1.6 |
| Gary Andersen | 2015–2017 | 7-23 | -6.0 |
| Jonathan Smith | 2018–2023 | 34-35 | +3.6 |
| Trent Bray | 2024–2025 | 5-14 | -8.4 |
| JaMarcus Shephard | 2026 | 5-4 | +2.3 |
Season by season
Best finish: #10 in 2000. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | #111 of 136 · -12.68 | – |
| 2024 | 5–7 | #94 of 134 · -6.66 | – |
| 2023 | 8–5 | #21 of 133 · 12.94 | – |
| 2022 | 10–3 | #17 of 131 · 14.33 | – |
| 2021 | 7–6 | #45 of 130 · 6.48 | – |
| 2020 | 2–5 | #74 of 128 · -1.12 | – |
| 2019 | 5–7 | #75 of 130 · -2.77 | #75 of 130 · 11.78 |
| 2018 | 2–10 | #112 of 130 · -16.14 | #126 of 130 · -52.67 |
| 2017 | 1–11 | #113 of 130 · -15.25 | #126 of 130 · -63.95 |
| 2016 | 4–8 | #70 of 128 · -2.25 | #86 of 128 · 2.26 |
| 2015 | 2–10 | #96 of 128 · -9.71 | #118 of 128 · -42.72 |
| 2014 | 5–7 | #61 of 128 · 0.37 | #88 of 128 · 1.70 |
| 2013 | 7–6 | #33 of 125 · 9.81 | #61 of 126 · 28.73 |
| 2012 | 9–4 | #21 of 124 · 13.15 | #27 of 124 · 55.86 |
| 2011 | 3–9 | #67 of 120 · -1.15 | #93 of 120 · -10.68 |
| 2010 | 5–7 | #36 of 120 · 8.65 | #59 of 120 · 24.04 |
| 2009 | 8–5 | #24 of 120 · 10.96 | #29 of 120 · 50.20 |
| 2008 | 9–4 | #17 of 120 · 14.17 | #18 of 120 · 59.88 |
| 2007 | 9–4 | #24 of 119 · 10.88 | #25 of 120 · 55.28 |
| 2006 | 10–4 | #34 of 119 · 7.76 | #37 of 119 · 47.80 |
| 2005 | 5–6 | #56 of 119 · 1.70 | #85 of 119 · 8.95 |
| 2004 | 7–5 | #21 of 117 · 12.24 | #25 of 117 · 60.51 |
| 2003 | 8–5 | #26 of 117 · 11.86 | #23 of 117 · 67.16 |
| 2002 | 8–5 | #23 of 117 · 11.70 | – |
| 2001 | 5–6 | #38 of 117 · 7.59 | – |
| 2000 | 11–1 | #10 of 116 · 16.83 | – |
| 1999 | 7–5 | #41 of 114 · 4.83 | – |
| 1998 | 5–6 | #50 of 112 · 1.48 | – |
| 1997 | 3–8 | #78 of 112 · -6.72 | – |
| 1996 | 2–9 | #90 of 111 · -12.37 | – |
| 1995 | 1–10 | #78 of 108 · -7.59 | – |
| 1994 | 4–7 | #46 of 107 · 3.08 | – |
| 1993 | 4–7 | #53 of 106 · -1.10 | – |
| 1992 | 1–10 | #88 of 107 · -9.50 | – |
| 1991 | 1–10 | #93 of 107 · -14.82 | – |
| 1990 | 1–10 | #91 of 107 · -14.14 | – |
| 1989 | 4–8 | #59 of 106 · -2.54 | – |
| 1988 | 4–7 | #48 of 104 · 1.18 | – |
| 1987 | 2–9 | #83 of 104 · -11.90 | – |
| 1986 | 3–8 | #75 of 105 · -8.43 | – |
| 1985 | 3–8 | #94 of 106 · -14.59 | – |
| 1984 | 2–9 | #89 of 106 · -10.00 | – |
| 1983 | 2–9 | #92 of 105 · -14.87 | – |
| 1982 | 1–10 | #95 of 105 · -15.67 | – |
| 1981 | 1–10 | #130 of 136 · -22.39 | – |
| 1980 | 0–11 | #132 of 138 · -20.05 | – |
| 1979 | 1–10 | #125 of 138 · -16.47 | – |
| 1978 | 3–8 | #110 of 138 · -9.66 | – |