East Tennessee State
SoCon · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -1.8 avg | × 27% | -0.5 |
| Opponents faced | +8.8 avg | × 27% | +2.4 |
| Preseason prior | +1.6 | × 73% | +1.2 |
| Power | +3.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Arizona State | L 65–75 | -13.8 | +3.8 | +0.6 |
| 2 | at | NC State | L 63–77 | -19.4 | +5.4 | +0.7 |
| 3 | vs | Campbell | W 68–53 | +13.2 | +1.8 | +0.6 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | +1.2 | |||||
| Power | +3.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | Marshall | +2.1 | 57% |
| 4 | vs | Longwood | +10.4 | 83% |
| 5 | vs | Kentucky State non-D1 | +39.2 | 100% |
| 5 | vs | Charleston Southern | +15.0 | 91% |
| 5 | vs | Morehead State | +18.5 | 95% |
| 6 | at | VMI | +13.4 | 89% |
| 8 | vs | UNC Greensboro | +14.8 | 91% |
| 9 | vs | Furman | +2.1 | 57% |
Season by season
Best finish: #19 in 2019–20. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 23–11 | #127 of 365 · 2.90 | – |
| 2024–25 | 19–13 | #143 of 364 · 1.45 | – |
| 2023–24 | 19–16 | #186 of 362 · -2.04 | – |
| 2022–23 | 12–20 | #229 of 363 · -3.95 | – |
| 2021–22 | 15–17 | #163 of 358 · 0.43 | – |
| 2020–21 | 13–12 | #106 of 347 · 5.34 | – |
| 2019–20 | 27–4 | – | #19 of 353 · 118.53 |
| 2018–19 | 22–10 | – | #41 of 353 · 102.90 |
| 2017–18 | 25–8 | – | #46 of 351 · 108.80 |
| 2016–17 | 27–8 | – | #37 of 351 · 115.28 |
| 2015–16 | 24–12 | – | #141 of 351 · 53.35 |
| 2014–15 | 16–14 | – | #173 of 351 · 34.38 |
| 2013–14 | 19–16 | – | #201 of 351 · 25.80 |
| 2012–13 | 9–22 | – | #325 of 347 · -61.24 |
| 2011–12 | 17–14 | – | #133 of 345 · 51.15 |
| 2010–11 | 24–12 | – | #83 of 346 · 78.91 |
| 2009–10 | 20–15 | – | #118 of 335 · 60.65 |
| 2008–09 | 23–11 | – | #59 of 330 · 95.53 |
| 2007–08 | 19–13 | – | #156 of 328 · 37.68 |
| 2006–07 | 24–10 | – | #103 of 326 · 64.50 |
| 2005–06 | 15–13 | – | #134 of 326 · 44.08 |
| 2004–05 | 10–19 | – | #254 of 326 · -7.01 |