Niagara
Metro · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -21.5 avg | × 27% | -5.9 |
| Opponents faced | +0.2 avg | × 27% | +0.1 |
| Preseason prior | -16.6 | × 73% | -12.1 |
| Power | -17.9 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | West Virginia | L 46–91 | -37.4 | -7.6 | -1.9 |
| 2 | vs | Morgan State | L 67–73 | -0.6 | -5.4 | -2.9 |
| 3 | at | Bowling Green | L 76–88 | -19.3 | +7.3 | -1.0 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -12.1 | |||||
| Power | -17.9 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Iowa State | -48.2 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Delaware State | -7.5 | 25% |
| 5 | at | Lafayette | -10.0 | 18% |
| 5 | N | Le Moyne | -6.7 | 27% |
| 5 | N | Maine | -4.7 | 33% |
| 8 | vs | Binghamton | -2.5 | 41% |
Season by season
Best finish: #43 in 2008–09. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 8–22 | #343 of 365 · -15.33 | – |
| 2024–25 | 11–20 | #316 of 364 · -11.05 | – |
| 2023–24 | 16–16 | #277 of 362 · -6.96 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–15 | #251 of 363 · -5.43 | – |
| 2021–22 | 14–16 | #200 of 358 · -2.23 | – |
| 2020–21 | 9–11 | #248 of 347 · -5.47 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–20 | – | #322 of 353 · -48.07 |
| 2018–19 | 13–19 | – | #291 of 353 · -23.55 |
| 2017–18 | 19–14 | – | #219 of 351 · 17.09 |
| 2016–17 | 10–23 | – | #274 of 351 · -9.60 |
| 2015–16 | 7–25 | – | #322 of 351 · -39.70 |
| 2014–15 | 8–22 | – | #306 of 351 · -27.52 |
| 2013–14 | 7–26 | – | #316 of 351 · -37.79 |
| 2012–13 | 19–13 | – | #118 of 347 · 52.44 |
| 2011–12 | 13–16 | – | #224 of 345 · 12.70 |
| 2010–11 | 9–23 | – | #318 of 346 · -52.07 |
| 2009–10 | 18–15 | – | #137 of 335 · 50.75 |
| 2008–09 | 26–9 | – | #43 of 330 · 109.97 |
| 2007–08 | 19–10 | – | #127 of 328 · 55.06 |
| 2006–07 | 23–12 | – | #129 of 326 · 50.38 |
| 2005–06 | 11–18 | – | #199 of 326 · 21.02 |
| 2004–05 | 20–10 | – | #70 of 326 · 79.51 |