South Alabama
Sun Belt · 2–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -4.3 avg | × 33% | -1.5 |
| Opponents faced | +0.8 avg | × 33% | +0.3 |
| Preseason prior | -5.1 | × 67% | -3.4 |
| Power | -4.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Ohio | L 77–86 | -1.3 | -7.7 | -1.9 |
| 2 | vs | Jacksonville State | W 83–80 | +2.2 | +0.8 | -0.6 |
| 3 | at | UCF | L 69–76 | -17.6 | +10.6 | +0.6 |
| 3 | N | Loyola Marymount | W 79–72 | -2.0 | +9.0 | +0.7 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | -3.4 | |||||
| Power | -4.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | North Texas | -11.4 | 15% |
| 4 | vs | Spring Hill non-D1 | +31.6 | 100% |
| 4 | at | SMU | -21.9 | 2% |
| 4 | vs | West Florida | +13.8 | 90% |
| 5 | vs | Florida A&M | +19.0 | 96% |
| 5 | N | Fresno State | +2.7 | 60% |
| 5 | N | South Dakota State | -4.2 | 35% |
| 8 | at | Arkansas State | -4.5 | 34% |
Season by season
Best finish: #31 in 2007–08. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 21–12 | #174 of 365 · -1.07 | – |
| 2024–25 | 21–11 | #129 of 364 · 2.37 | – |
| 2023–24 | 16–16 | #218 of 362 · -3.94 | – |
| 2022–23 | 19–16 | #109 of 363 · 4.68 | – |
| 2021–22 | 21–12 | #143 of 358 · 2.54 | – |
| 2020–21 | 17–11 | #156 of 347 · 0.61 | – |
| 2019–20 | 17–11 | – | #164 of 353 · 37.08 |
| 2018–19 | 15–17 | – | #255 of 353 · -6.14 |
| 2017–18 | 14–18 | – | #249 of 351 · 3.55 |
| 2016–17 | 14–18 | – | #230 of 351 · 12.33 |
| 2015–16 | 14–19 | – | #279 of 351 · -16.90 |
| 2014–15 | 12–21 | – | #308 of 351 · -28.02 |
| 2013–14 | 11–20 | – | #250 of 351 · 3.74 |
| 2012–13 | 16–12 | – | #149 of 347 · 38.28 |
| 2011–12 | 17–12 | – | #161 of 345 · 39.75 |
| 2010–11 | 12–16 | – | #255 of 346 · -5.10 |
| 2009–10 | 17–15 | – | #229 of 335 · 7.85 |
| 2008–09 | 20–13 | – | #135 of 330 · 48.72 |
| 2007–08 | 26–7 | – | #31 of 328 · 125.20 |
| 2006–07 | 20–12 | – | #112 of 326 · 59.15 |
| 2005–06 | 24–7 | – | #40 of 326 · 104.39 |
| 2004–05 | 10–17 | – | #276 of 326 · -16.75 |