Arkansas State
Sun Belt · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -17.7 avg | × 27% | -4.8 |
| Opponents faced | +6.9 avg | × 27% | +1.9 |
| Preseason prior | -0.1 | × 73% | -0.1 |
| Power | -3.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Dillard non-D1 | +33.1 | 100% |
| 4 | vs | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | +18.3 | 95% |
| 5 | N | Southern Utah | +3.2 | 61% |
| 5 | N | Long Beach State | +5.8 | 70% |
| 5 | at | Florida International | -3.6 | 37% |
| 5 | vs | Rice | +7.6 | 76% |
| 8 | vs | South Alabama | +4.5 | 66% |
| 8 | vs | Georgia Southern | +9.3 | 80% |
Season by season
Best finish: #75 in 2024–25. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 20–12 | #126 of 365 · 2.90 | – |
| 2024–25 | 25–11 | #75 of 364 · 8.62 | – |
| 2023–24 | 20–17 | #151 of 362 · 1.41 | – |
| 2022–23 | 13–20 | #280 of 363 · -7.42 | – |
| 2021–22 | 18–11 | #165 of 358 · 0.31 | – |
| 2020–21 | 11–13 | #214 of 347 · -3.10 | – |
| 2019–20 | 14–16 | – | #227 of 353 · 6.15 |
| 2018–19 | 11–19 | – | #265 of 353 · -9.20 |
| 2017–18 | 11–21 | – | #301 of 351 · -24.40 |
| 2016–17 | 20–12 | – | #114 of 351 · 62.46 |
| 2015–16 | 11–20 | – | #260 of 351 · -10.37 |
| 2014–15 | 11–18 | – | #288 of 351 · -16.90 |
| 2013–14 | 19–13 | – | #149 of 351 · 45.10 |
| 2012–13 | 18–12 | – | #94 of 347 · 62.66 |
| 2011–12 | 14–20 | – | #203 of 345 · 19.25 |
| 2010–11 | 17–15 | – | #143 of 346 · 48.03 |
| 2009–10 | 17–14 | – | #163 of 335 · 37.64 |
| 2008–09 | 13–17 | – | #199 of 330 · 22.12 |
| 2007–08 | 10–20 | – | #250 of 328 · -7.35 |
| 2006–07 | 18–15 | – | #192 of 326 · 21.42 |
| 2005–06 | 12–18 | – | #232 of 326 · 1.91 |
| 2004–05 | 16–13 | – | #134 of 326 · 43.15 |