Tarleton State
UAC · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +14.4 avg | × 27% | +3.9 |
| Opponents faced | -18.8 avg | × 27% | -5.1 |
| Preseason prior | -4.7 | × 73% | -3.4 |
| Power | -4.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Cameron non-D1 | W 86–60 | +31.6 | -5.6 | -0.1 |
| 2 | at | San Diego | L 90–96 | -2.1 | -3.9 | -0.6 |
| 3 | vs | UT Dallas non-D1 | W 76–57 | +31.6 | -12.6 | -0.5 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -3.4 | |||||
| Power | -4.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Alcorn State | +19.4 | 96% |
| 4 | at | Drake | -9.1 | 20% |
| 4 | at | USC | -27.6 | 1% |
| 5 | at | Weber State | +4.6 | 66% |
| 5 | at | Texas Southern | +7.0 | 74% |
| 6 | at | Pittsburgh | -17.3 | 6% |
| 11 | vs | Central Arkansas | -0.1 | 50% |
| 11 | vs | Little Rock | +7.8 | 76% |
Season by season
Best finish: #134 in 2023–24. 6 seasons rated. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 300 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Hover a point for the season.