Alcorn State
SWAC · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -31.4 avg | × 27% | -8.6 |
| Opponents faced | +7.2 avg | × 27% | +2.0 |
| Preseason prior | -19.8 | × 73% | -14.4 |
| Power | -21.0 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Ole Miss | L 58–99 | -41.3 | +0.3 | -1.7 |
| 2 | vs | Howard | L 83–94 | -15.9 | +4.9 | -2.4 |
| 3 | at | Murray State | L 57–94 | -30.4 | -6.6 | -2.5 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -14.4 | |||||
| Power | -21.0 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Tarleton State | -19.4 | 4% |
| 4 | at | Maryland | -34.5 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Missouri | -43.1 | 0% |
| 5 | at | Louisiana Tech | -19.4 | 4% |
| 5 | at | Texas State | -26.3 | 1% |
| 5 | at | Georgia Tech | -27.7 | 1% |
| 6 | at | Iowa State | -51.3 | 0% |
| 8 | at | Minnesota | -37.6 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #218 in 2016–17. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 9–23 | #353 of 365 · -17.63 | – |
| 2024–25 | 11–21 | #330 of 364 · -12.36 | – |
| 2023–24 | 14–18 | #302 of 362 · -8.96 | – |
| 2022–23 | 18–14 | #264 of 363 · -6.33 | – |
| 2021–22 | 17–17 | #295 of 358 · -8.85 | – |
| 2020–21 | 6–13 | #323 of 347 · -12.89 | – |
| 2019–20 | 11–15 | – | #299 of 353 · -27.45 |
| 2018–19 | 6–21 | – | #343 of 353 · -87.14 |
| 2017–18 | 11–21 | – | #339 of 351 · -65.78 |
| 2016–17 | 18–14 | – | #218 of 351 · 17.41 |
| 2015–16 | 15–15 | – | #272 of 351 · -13.43 |
| 2014–15 | 6–26 | – | #341 of 351 · -69.79 |
| 2013–14 | 12–19 | – | #298 of 351 · -25.05 |
| 2012–13 | 9–23 | – | #326 of 347 · -61.46 |
| 2011–12 | 10–22 | – | #324 of 345 · -57.81 |
| 2010–11 | 4–24 | – | #342 of 346 · -98.91 |
| 2009–10 | 2–29 | – | #335 of 335 · -147.14 |
| 2008–09 | 6–25 | – | #330 of 330 · -123.94 |
| 2007–08 | 7–24 | – | #323 of 328 · -82.19 |
| 2006–07 | 11–19 | – | #320 of 326 · -57.61 |
| 2005–06 | 8–20 | – | #304 of 326 · -49.63 |
| 2004–05 | 7–22 | – | #318 of 326 · -76.32 |