North Dakota State
Summit · 1–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -4.9 avg | × 33% | -1.6 |
| Opponents faced | -5.4 avg | × 33% | -1.8 |
| Preseason prior | +0.2 | × 67% | +0.1 |
| Power | -3.3 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Minnesota Crookston non-D1 | W 90–59 | +32.9 | -1.9 | +0.4 |
| 2 | at | Saint Mary's | L 64–105 | -20.9 | -20.1 | -1.8 |
| 2 | at | San Francisco | L 70–79 | -7.0 | -2.0 | -0.4 |
| 2 | at | Cal State Bakersfield | L 80–91 | +5.1 | -16.1 | -1.6 |
| Preseason prior (67% of the rating) | +0.1 | |||||
| Power | -3.3 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | vs | Illinois State | -7.2 | 26% |
| 3 | vs | Cal State Bakersfield | +11.0 | 84% |
| 4 | at | Colorado State | -15.0 | 9% |
| 5 | vs | Wisconsin-Stout non-D1 | +32.9 | 100% |
| 5 | N | North Texas | -7.2 | 26% |
| 5 | N | Drake | -4.8 | 33% |
| 5 | N | Boise State | -15.3 | 8% |
| 6 | vs | UC Davis | +6.3 | 72% |
Season by season
Best finish: #45 in 2013–14. 18 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 250 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 27–8 | #115 of 365 · 3.74 | – |
| 2024–25 | 21–11 | #151 of 364 · 0.92 | – |
| 2023–24 | 15–17 | #245 of 362 · -5.11 | – |
| 2022–23 | 16–17 | #218 of 363 · -3.24 | – |
| 2021–22 | 23–10 | #139 of 358 · 2.74 | – |
| 2020–21 | 15–12 | #136 of 347 · 2.37 | – |
| 2019–20 | 23–8 | – | #96 of 353 · 68.91 |
| 2018–19 | 17–16 | – | #207 of 353 · 14.60 |
| 2017–18 | 15–17 | – | #191 of 351 · 28.28 |
| 2016–17 | 19–11 | – | #144 of 351 · 47.34 |
| 2015–16 | 20–13 | – | #131 of 351 · 57.51 |
| 2014–15 | 23–10 | – | #129 of 351 · 53.74 |
| 2013–14 | 26–7 | – | #45 of 351 · 111.12 |
| 2012–13 | 22–9 | – | #61 of 347 · 93.20 |
| 2011–12 | 16–13 | – | #126 of 345 · 55.61 |
| 2010–11 | 14–15 | – | #154 of 346 · 41.66 |
| 2009–10 | 11–18 | – | #225 of 335 · 9.22 |
| 2008–09 | 26–7 | – | #48 of 330 · 105.57 |