Alabama State
SWAC · 1–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -13.4 avg | × 27% | -3.7 |
| Opponents faced | -8.1 avg | × 27% | -2.2 |
| Preseason prior | -14.2 | × 73% | -10.3 |
| Power | -16.2 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Texas A&M | L 66–97 | -40.3 | +9.3 | -0.8 |
| 3 | vs | Georgia Gwinnett non-D1 | L 77–79 | +19.9 | -21.9 | -3.0 |
| 3 | vs | Panhandle St (OK) non-D1 | W 66–60 | +19.9 | -13.9 | -2.1 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -10.3 | |||||
| Power | -16.2 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | San José State | -13.0 | 12% |
| 4 | at | UC Davis | -12.6 | 13% |
| 4 | at | Fresno State | -11.9 | 14% |
| 5 | at | California | -25.2 | 1% |
| 5 | vs | Arkansas-Monticello non-D1 | +19.9 | 96% |
| 7 | at | Oklahoma | -30.1 | 0% |
| 8 | at | Air Force | -8.4 | 22% |
Season by season
Best finish: #123 in 2007–08. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 10–22 | #317 of 365 · -12.03 | – |
| 2024–25 | 20–16 | #269 of 364 · -7.13 | – |
| 2023–24 | 13–19 | #314 of 362 · -10.55 | – |
| 2022–23 | 8–23 | #352 of 363 · -15.63 | – |
| 2021–22 | 9–21 | #338 of 358 · -13.28 | – |
| 2020–21 | 4–14 | #343 of 347 · -19.56 | – |
| 2019–20 | 8–24 | – | #329 of 353 · -55.19 |
| 2018–19 | 10–18 | – | #300 of 353 · -30.25 |
| 2017–18 | 8–23 | – | #336 of 351 · -63.64 |
| 2016–17 | 8–23 | – | #332 of 351 · -54.54 |
| 2015–16 | 14–17 | – | #230 of 351 · 7.60 |
| 2014–15 | 19–10 | – | #150 of 351 · 46.08 |
| 2013–14 | 19–13 | – | #231 of 351 · 12.31 |
| 2012–13 | 9–22 | – | #314 of 347 · -47.58 |
| 2011–12 | 11–19 | – | #282 of 345 · -17.06 |
| 2010–11 | 17–18 | – | #261 of 346 · -7.17 |
| 2009–10 | 16–15 | – | #249 of 335 · -0.10 |
| 2008–09 | 22–10 | – | #147 of 330 · 41.41 |
| 2007–08 | 20–11 | – | #123 of 328 · 56.61 |
| 2006–07 | 10–20 | – | #276 of 326 · -20.40 |
| 2005–06 | 12–18 | – | #252 of 326 · -6.31 |
| 2004–05 | 14–15 | – | #240 of 326 · 0.15 |