Middle Tennessee
Conference USA · 5–4 · 3–2 in conference · MRI Classic #109
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -3.2 avg | × 69% | -2.2 |
| Opponents faced | -13.8 avg | × 69% | -9.5 |
| Preseason prior | -17.7 | × 31% | -5.4 |
| Power | -17.1 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Murray State FCS | W 38–14 | +19.6 | +4.4 | -1.3 |
| 2 | at | Marshall | L 26–28 | -7.4 | +5.4 | -1.0 |
| 3 | vs | Nevada | W 27–20 | -0.9 | +7.9 | -0.5 |
| 4 | at | Jacksonville State | L 13–23 | -14.3 | +4.3 | -1.2 |
| 5 | at | Kansas | L 0–55 | -21.2 | -33.8 | -3.4 |
| 7 | vs | Delaware | W 33–30 | -3.6 | +6.6 | -0.7 |
| 8 | at | FIU | W 26–23 | -8.2 | +11.2 | -0.4 |
| 9 | vs | Kennesaw State | L 28–44 | -0.3 | -15.7 | -2.9 |
| 10 | vs | Western Kentucky | W 51–42 | -0.8 | +9.8 | -0.3 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -5.4 | |||||
| Power | -17.1 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Liberty | -23.1 | 8% |
| 12 | at | Sam Houston | +1.8 | 54% |
| 13 | vs | New Mexico State | +4.4 | 60% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy McCollum | 1999–2005 | 34-45 | -2.3 |
| Rick Stockstill | 2006–2023 | 113-111 | -2.8 |
| Derek Mason | 2024–2026 | 11-22 | -7.0 |
Season by season
Best finish: #33 in 2009. 27 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3–9 | #131 of 136 · -20.72 | – |
| 2024 | 3–9 | #129 of 134 · -22.84 | – |
| 2023 | 4–8 | #109 of 133 · -10.39 | – |
| 2022 | 8–5 | #98 of 131 · -7.79 | – |
| 2021 | 7–6 | #94 of 130 · -6.83 | – |
| 2020 | 3–6 | #116 of 128 · -16.57 | – |
| 2019 | 4–8 | #94 of 130 · -7.72 | #98 of 130 · -4.76 |
| 2018 | 8–6 | #82 of 130 · -3.45 | #63 of 130 · 23.70 |
| 2017 | 7–6 | #94 of 130 · -7.87 | #81 of 130 · 11.70 |
| 2016 | 8–5 | #84 of 128 · -5.41 | #82 of 128 · 6.67 |
| 2015 | 7–6 | #77 of 128 · -2.50 | #66 of 128 · 22.84 |
| 2014 | 6–6 | #86 of 128 · -7.24 | #78 of 128 · 8.04 |
| 2013 | 8–5 | #84 of 125 · -7.39 | #71 of 126 · 20.79 |
| 2012 | 8–4 | #97 of 124 · -11.18 | #69 of 124 · 16.64 |
| 2011 | 2–10 | #114 of 120 · -22.04 | #112 of 120 · -42.55 |
| 2010 | 6–7 | #98 of 120 · -12.45 | #95 of 120 · -12.44 |
| 2009 | 10–3 | #67 of 120 · -1.64 | #33 of 120 · 44.09 |
| 2008 | 5–7 | #94 of 120 · -10.61 | #90 of 120 · -2.83 |
| 2007 | 5–7 | #83 of 119 · -8.09 | #83 of 120 · 8.60 |
| 2006 | 7–6 | #78 of 119 · -6.47 | #59 of 119 · 27.89 |
| 2005 | 4–7 | #94 of 119 · -11.44 | #74 of 119 · 17.81 |
| 2004 | 5–6 | #98 of 117 · -13.31 | #94 of 117 · -5.89 |
| 2003 | 4–8 | #94 of 117 · -11.55 | #88 of 117 · -3.84 |
| 2002 | 4–8 | #92 of 117 · -10.48 | – |
| 2001 | 8–3 | #78 of 117 · -4.53 | – |
| 2000 | 6–5 | #91 of 116 · -10.66 | – |
| 1999 | 3–8 | #110 of 114 · -23.86 | – |