Nevada
Mountain West · 3–6 · 2–3 in conference · MRI Classic #106
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -4.1 avg | × 69% | -2.8 |
| Opponents faced | -8.5 avg | × 69% | -5.9 |
| Preseason prior | -14.6 | × 31% | -4.5 |
| Power | -13.2 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs | Western Kentucky | W 49–14 | +3.1 | +31.9 | +1.7 |
| 2 | vs | Montana State FCS | L 7–20 | +23.5 | -36.5 | -3.3 |
| 3 | at | Middle Tennessee | L 20–27 | +0.9 | -7.9 | -1.8 |
| 4 | vs | Air Force | L 33–36 | -6.2 | +3.2 | -0.9 |
| 6 | at | UTEP | W 30–13 | +9.5 | +7.5 | -0.1 |
| 7 | at | North Dakota State | L 17–31 | -13.1 | -0.9 | -1.4 |
| 8 | vs | San Jose State | W 28–13 | +2.5 | +12.5 | +0.3 |
| 9 | at | UCLA | L 0–27 | -33.6 | +6.6 | -0.9 |
| 10 | vs | New Mexico | L 3–31 | -15.8 | -12.2 | -2.3 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -4.5 | |||||
| Power | -13.2 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Northern Illinois | +8.8 | 70% |
| 12 | vs | Hawaii | +1.5 | 54% |
| 13 | at | UNLV | -10.1 | 27% |
Coaches
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ault | 1992 | 7-5 | -1.1 |
| Jeff Horton | 1993 | 7-4 | -0.2 |
| Chris Ault | 1994–1995 | 18-5 | +2.1 |
| Jeff Tisdel | 1996–1999 | 23-22 | -3.6 |
| Chris Tormey | 2000–2003 | 16-31 | -3.9 |
| Chris Ault | 2004–2012 | 70-46 | +0.3 |
| Brian Polian | 2013–2016 | 23-27 | -4.5 |
| Jay Norvell | 2017–2021 | 33-26 | +0.5 |
| Ken Wilson | 2022–2023 | 4-20 | -10.3 |
| Jeff Choate | 2024–2026 | 9-25 | -1.1 |
Season by season
Best finish: #10 in 2010. 34 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3–9 | #118 of 136 · -15.19 | – |
| 2024 | 3–10 | #109 of 134 · -11.59 | – |
| 2023 | 2–10 | #130 of 133 · -20.96 | – |
| 2022 | 2–10 | #124 of 131 · -16.70 | – |
| 2021 | 8–5 | #57 of 130 · 4.06 | – |
| 2020 | 7–2 | #70 of 128 · -0.66 | – |
| 2019 | 7–6 | #114 of 130 · -13.48 | #103 of 130 · -9.76 |
| 2018 | 8–5 | #89 of 130 · -5.12 | #79 of 130 · 15.14 |
| 2017 | 3–9 | #102 of 130 · -11.48 | #101 of 130 · -8.97 |
| 2016 | 5–7 | #105 of 128 · -13.08 | #98 of 128 · -12.08 |
| 2015 | 7–6 | #92 of 128 · -7.22 | #79 of 128 · 10.50 |
| 2014 | 7–6 | #71 of 128 · -2.36 | #73 of 128 · 18.20 |
| 2013 | 4–8 | #81 of 125 · -5.90 | #87 of 126 · -2.18 |
| 2012 | 7–6 | #64 of 124 · -0.69 | #63 of 124 · 23.68 |
| 2011 | 7–6 | #45 of 120 · 4.43 | #36 of 120 · 43.76 |
| 2010 | 13–1 | #21 of 120 · 11.86 | #10 of 120 · 83.19 |
| 2009 | 8–5 | #56 of 120 · 2.06 | #39 of 120 · 40.48 |
| 2008 | 7–6 | #60 of 120 · -0.03 | #42 of 120 · 40.52 |
| 2007 | 6–7 | #74 of 119 · -4.38 | #70 of 120 · 18.33 |
| 2006 | 8–5 | #51 of 119 · 2.32 | #40 of 119 · 43.64 |
| 2005 | 9–3 | #83 of 119 · -7.91 | #71 of 119 · 21.88 |
| 2004 | 5–7 | #100 of 117 · -13.74 | #96 of 117 · -8.15 |
| 2003 | 6–6 | #88 of 117 · -9.70 | #71 of 117 · 21.11 |
| 2002 | 5–7 | #84 of 117 · -8.62 | – |
| 2001 | 3–8 | #101 of 117 · -15.20 | – |
| 2000 | 2–10 | #110 of 116 · -22.37 | – |
| 1999 | 3–8 | #98 of 114 · -13.74 | – |
| 1998 | 6–5 | #72 of 112 · -4.67 | – |
| 1997 | 5–6 | #62 of 112 · -2.11 | – |
| 1996 | 9–3 | #46 of 111 · 2.56 | – |
| 1995 | 9–3 | #58 of 108 · -0.84 | – |
| 1994 | 9–2 | #70 of 107 · -3.88 | – |
| 1993 | 7–4 | #80 of 106 · -8.94 | – |
| 1992 | 7–5 | #93 of 107 · -12.58 | – |