New Mexico State
Conference USA · 3–6 · 2–3 in conference · MRI Classic #114
Who to root for this week
Nothing this weekend moves the needle.
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 4). After 9 games, w is 69%, so the preseason prior is 31% of this rating. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -7.4 avg | × 69% | -5.1 |
| Opponents faced | -9.7 avg | × 69% | -6.7 |
| Preseason prior | -21.7 | × 31% | -6.7 |
| Power | -18.5 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at | Florida State | L 17–34 | -28.2 | +11.2 | -0.9 |
| 1 | vs | Mercyhurst FCS | W 51–14 | +18.2 | +18.8 | -0.1 |
| 2 | at | Hawaii | L 19–29 | -9.9 | -0.1 | -1.7 |
| 4 | vs | New Mexico | L 18–42 | -21.2 | -2.8 | -2.0 |
| 5 | vs | Western Kentucky | W 34–13 | -2.2 | +23.2 | +0.8 |
| 6 | at | FIU | L 3–22 | -9.6 | -9.4 | -2.5 |
| 8 | at | Sam Houston | W 30–24 | +0.5 | +5.5 | -0.9 |
| 9 | vs | Jacksonville State | L 0–24 | -9.6 | -14.4 | -2.9 |
| 10 | vs | Liberty | L 14–30 | -18.4 | +2.4 | -1.6 |
| Preseason prior (31% of the rating) | -6.7 | |||||
| Power | -18.5 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | at | Missouri State | -6.0 | 36% |
| 12 | vs | Delaware | -5.0 | 38% |
| 13 | at | Middle Tennessee | -4.4 | 40% |
Coaches
Mean added leaves out 1978–1980, the first seasons rated, which have no preseason prior to measure against.
| Coach | Years | Record | Mean added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Krueger | 1978–1982 | 17-37-1 | -8.5 |
| Fred Zechman | 1983–1985 | 8-25 | -7.8 |
| Mike Knoll | 1986–1989 | 4-40 | -10.3 |
| Jim Hess | 1990–1996 | 22-55 | -6.3 |
| Tony Samuel | 1997–2004 | 34-57 | -3.1 |
| Hal Mumme | 2005–2008 | 11-38 | -6.9 |
| DeWayne Walker | 2009–2012 | 10-40 | -9.1 |
| Doug Martin | 2013–2021 | 25-74 | -7.6 |
| Jerry Kill | 2022–2023 | 17-11 | +3.6 |
| Tony Sanchez | 2024–2026 | 10-23 | -3.8 |
Season by season
Best finish: #81 in 2006. 48 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 150 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4–8 | #127 of 136 · -19.03 | – |
| 2024 | 3–9 | #131 of 134 · -23.58 | – |
| 2023 | 10–5 | #94 of 133 · -6.73 | – |
| 2022 | 7–6 | #122 of 131 · -16.15 | – |
| 2021 | 2–10 | #126 of 130 · -25.54 | – |
| 2020 | 1–1 | #126 of 128 · -32.27 | – |
| 2019 | 2–10 | #125 of 130 · -24.98 | #126 of 130 · -72.26 |
| 2018 | 3–9 | #127 of 130 · -23.53 | #127 of 130 · -54.07 |
| 2017 | 7–6 | #104 of 130 · -12.85 | #85 of 130 · 9.53 |
| 2016 | 3–9 | #126 of 128 · -22.16 | #114 of 128 · -31.32 |
| 2015 | 3–9 | #125 of 128 · -25.02 | #114 of 128 · -33.75 |
| 2014 | 2–10 | #126 of 128 · -28.06 | #124 of 128 · -51.81 |
| 2013 | 2–10 | #124 of 125 · -31.58 | #120 of 126 · -65.48 |
| 2012 | 1–11 | #123 of 124 · -26.96 | #123 of 124 · -82.58 |
| 2011 | 4–9 | #113 of 120 · -19.82 | #103 of 120 · -25.03 |
| 2010 | 2–10 | #120 of 120 · -28.89 | #116 of 120 · -62.25 |
| 2009 | 3–10 | #119 of 120 · -25.58 | #118 of 120 · -68.08 |
| 2008 | 3–9 | #114 of 120 · -18.97 | #106 of 120 · -23.52 |
| 2007 | 4–9 | #113 of 119 · -17.68 | #108 of 120 · -25.15 |
| 2006 | 4–8 | #104 of 119 · -13.10 | #81 of 119 · 4.46 |
| 2005 | 0–12 | #118 of 119 · -24.49 | #119 of 119 · -67.97 |
| 2004 | 5–6 | #96 of 117 · -12.11 | #85 of 117 · -0.56 |
| 2003 | 3–9 | #97 of 117 · -12.19 | #84 of 117 · 1.78 |
| 2002 | 7–5 | #86 of 117 · -9.20 | – |
| 2001 | 5–7 | #93 of 117 · -12.01 | – |
| 2000 | 3–8 | #90 of 116 · -10.55 | – |
| 1999 | 6–5 | #89 of 114 · -9.33 | – |
| 1998 | 3–8 | #105 of 112 · -18.59 | – |
| 1997 | 2–9 | #110 of 112 · -29.04 | – |
| 1996 | 1–10 | #108 of 111 · -27.43 | – |
| 1995 | 4–7 | #94 of 108 · -16.48 | – |
| 1994 | 3–8 | #103 of 107 · -21.75 | – |
| 1993 | 5–6 | #98 of 106 · -18.55 | – |
| 1992 | 6–5 | #98 of 107 · -15.93 | – |
| 1991 | 2–9 | #103 of 107 · -23.26 | – |
| 1990 | 1–10 | #107 of 107 · -30.41 | – |
| 1989 | 0–11 | #106 of 106 · -31.75 | – |
| 1988 | 1–10 | #104 of 104 · -31.17 | – |
| 1987 | 2–9 | #104 of 104 · -30.88 | – |
| 1986 | 1–10 | #105 of 105 · -28.95 | – |
| 1985 | 1–10 | #105 of 106 · -25.16 | – |
| 1984 | 2–9 | #105 of 106 · -22.79 | – |
| 1983 | 5–6 | #97 of 105 · -19.14 | – |
| 1982 | 3–8 | #101 of 105 · -19.69 | – |
| 1981 | 3–8 | #126 of 136 · -18.74 | – |
| 1980 | 3–8 | #119 of 138 · -12.57 | – |
| 1979 | 2–9 | #129 of 138 · -17.44 | – |
| 1978 | 6–5 | #95 of 138 · -5.25 | – |