Idaho State
Big Sky · 0–3
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | -21.8 avg | × 27% | -6.0 |
| Opponents faced | +4.4 avg | × 27% | +1.2 |
| Preseason prior | -12.1 | × 73% | -8.8 |
| Power | -13.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | at | Utah State | L 58–94 | -35.3 | -0.7 | -1.3 |
| 2 | at | Wyoming | L 62–93 | -21.6 | -9.4 | -2.3 |
| 2 | at | Air Force | L 82–89 | -5.8 | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -8.8 | |||||
| Power | -13.6 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Seattle U | -15.0 | 9% |
| 4 | vs | South Dakota State | -10.2 | 18% |
| 5 | at | Boise State | -28.6 | 0% |
| 5 | vs | Azusa Pacific non-D1 | +22.6 | 98% |
| 6 | at | Southern Utah | -10.3 | 18% |
| 6 | at | Utah Tech | -10.4 | 17% |
| 8 | at | UC Davis | -9.9 | 18% |
| 10 | vs | Northern Arizona | +0.5 | 52% |
Season by season
Best finish: #177 in 2006–07. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 13–20 | #269 of 365 · -7.46 | – |
| 2024–25 | 15–15 | #219 of 364 · -3.67 | – |
| 2023–24 | 14–20 | #269 of 362 · -6.29 | – |
| 2022–23 | 11–21 | #284 of 363 · -7.55 | – |
| 2021–22 | 7–23 | #311 of 358 · -10.81 | – |
| 2020–21 | 13–11 | #203 of 347 · -2.60 | – |
| 2019–20 | 6–22 | – | #306 of 353 · -33.80 |
| 2018–19 | 9–19 | – | #320 of 353 · -44.37 |
| 2017–18 | 14–16 | – | #262 of 351 · -3.44 |
| 2016–17 | 5–26 | – | #343 of 351 · -77.97 |
| 2015–16 | 16–15 | – | #270 of 351 · -12.88 |
| 2014–15 | 7–23 | – | #301 of 351 · -25.90 |
| 2013–14 | 11–18 | – | #208 of 351 · 22.54 |
| 2012–13 | 5–24 | – | #315 of 347 · -49.08 |
| 2011–12 | 9–21 | – | #296 of 345 · -27.66 |
| 2010–11 | 9–20 | – | #298 of 346 · -27.02 |
| 2009–10 | 7–22 | – | #301 of 335 · -35.16 |
| 2008–09 | 13–19 | – | #223 of 330 · 7.88 |
| 2007–08 | 12–19 | – | #305 of 328 · -40.54 |
| 2006–07 | 13–17 | – | #177 of 326 · 27.43 |
| 2005–06 | 13–14 | – | #194 of 326 · 23.51 |
| 2004–05 | 9–18 | – | #301 of 326 · -37.10 |