Jacksonville
ASUN · 2–1
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +8.2 avg | × 27% | +2.2 |
| Opponents faced | -8.8 avg | × 27% | -2.4 |
| Preseason prior | -8.5 | × 73% | -6.2 |
| Power | -6.4 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Expected | Perf | Adds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | vs | Trinity Baptist non-D1 | W 105–61 | +29.8 | +14.2 | -0.5 |
| 2 | at | Florida | L 57–88 | -38.1 | +7.1 | -0.1 |
| 3 | vs | Kansas City | W 79–61 | +9.8 | +8.2 | +0.4 |
| Preseason prior (73% of the rating) | -6.2 | |||||
| Power | -6.4 | |||||
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | at | Georgia | -23.1 | 2% |
| 4 | vs | Little Rock | +6.0 | 71% |
| 4 | vs | Central Arkansas | -1.9 | 43% |
| 5 | at | Indiana | -26.9 | 1% |
| 5 | vs | Trinity Baptist non-D1 | +29.8 | 100% |
| 8 | at | Florida State | -23.7 | 2% |
| 11 | vs | Lipscomb | -1.8 | 43% |
| 11 | vs | Bellarmine | +5.2 | 68% |
Season by season
Best finish: #82 in 2008–09. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 12–20 | #287 of 365 · -9.06 | – |
| 2024–25 | 19–14 | #211 of 364 · -3.24 | – |
| 2023–24 | 16–17 | #251 of 362 · -5.52 | – |
| 2022–23 | 13–16 | #206 of 363 · -2.51 | – |
| 2021–22 | 21–10 | #176 of 358 · -0.24 | – |
| 2020–21 | 11–13 | #277 of 347 · -8.17 | – |
| 2019–20 | 12–18 | – | #217 of 353 · 11.08 |
| 2018–19 | 10–20 | – | #279 of 353 · -18.77 |
| 2017–18 | 15–18 | – | #283 of 351 · -15.15 |
| 2016–17 | 17–16 | – | #231 of 351 · 11.37 |
| 2015–16 | 16–16 | – | #223 of 351 · 10.13 |
| 2014–15 | 10–22 | – | #333 of 351 · -53.61 |
| 2013–14 | 12–18 | – | #292 of 351 · -21.55 |
| 2012–13 | 12–18 | – | #266 of 347 · -18.33 |
| 2011–12 | 8–22 | – | #283 of 345 · -18.51 |
| 2010–11 | 20–12 | – | #126 of 346 · 56.40 |
| 2009–10 | 20–13 | – | #119 of 335 · 59.67 |
| 2008–09 | 18–14 | – | #82 of 330 · 79.12 |
| 2007–08 | 18–13 | – | #173 of 328 · 30.06 |
| 2006–07 | 15–14 | – | #179 of 326 · 26.54 |
| 2005–06 | 1–26 | – | #322 of 326 · -81.45 |
| 2004–05 | 16–13 | – | #270 of 326 · -12.77 |