Northern Illinois
Horizon · 2–2
How this rating is built
Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 4 games, w is 33%, so the preseason prior is 67% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.
| Part | Value | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Margin counted | +7.3 avg | × 33% | +2.4 |
| Opponents faced | -6.3 avg | × 33% | -2.1 |
| Preseason prior | -14.9 | × 67% | -9.9 |
| Power | -9.6 | ||
This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.
Results
Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Projected | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | at | Bellarmine | -3.9 | 36% |
| 4 | at | Marquette | -30.6 | 0% |
| 4 | at | Bowling Green | -11.0 | 16% |
| 5 | at | SIU Edwardsville | -7.8 | 24% |
| 5 | at | Eastern Illinois | +1.0 | 54% |
| 9 | at | Arizona | -37.5 | 0% |
Season by season
Best finish: #124 in 2005–06. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.
Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 400 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.
| Season | Rec | MRI 2.0 | MRI Classic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025–26 | 9–21 | #346 of 365 · -15.45 | – |
| 2024–25 | 6–25 | #340 of 364 · -14.81 | – |
| 2023–24 | 11–20 | #295 of 362 · -8.30 | – |
| 2022–23 | 13–19 | #269 of 363 · -6.76 | – |
| 2021–22 | 9–21 | #305 of 358 · -10.29 | – |
| 2020–21 | 3–16 | #329 of 347 · -13.92 | – |
| 2019–20 | 17–13 | – | #153 of 353 · 41.57 |
| 2018–19 | 15–17 | – | #145 of 353 · 41.79 |
| 2017–18 | 13–19 | – | #256 of 351 · 0.08 |
| 2016–17 | 15–17 | – | #182 of 351 · 34.96 |
| 2015–16 | 21–13 | – | #128 of 351 · 58.27 |
| 2014–15 | 14–16 | – | #171 of 351 · 35.15 |
| 2013–14 | 15–17 | – | #193 of 351 · 29.45 |
| 2012–13 | 4–25 | – | #320 of 347 · -56.74 |
| 2011–12 | 5–26 | – | #333 of 345 · -72.06 |
| 2010–11 | 9–21 | – | #287 of 346 · -19.93 |
| 2009–10 | 10–20 | – | #256 of 335 · -2.45 |
| 2008–09 | 10–20 | – | #292 of 330 · -32.17 |
| 2007–08 | 6–22 | – | #299 of 328 · -36.05 |
| 2006–07 | 7–23 | – | #279 of 326 · -23.52 |
| 2005–06 | 17–11 | – | #124 of 326 · 51.30 |
| 2004–05 | 11–17 | – | #197 of 326 · 19.59 |