The MRI
2026–27 · Week 3

Sam Houston

CUSA · 2–1

Power-0.6#151 of 365
Résumé+0.23#140 · wins above average
Movement-2down from #149 last week
Best winPepperdine (85–77)
Worst lossAlabama (74–96)
Schedule faced-6.1 avg opponent
Schedule ahead-0.9 avg opponent
Returning production18% of last season's win shares · #212 of 364 · counted against its preseason rating
Incoming production1.9 win shares from other schools' players
Recruiting class#179 in the country

How this rating is built

Power = w × (average margin counted + average opponent rating) + (1 − w) × preseason prior, where w = games ÷ (games + 8). After 3 games, w is 27%, so the preseason prior is 73% of this rating — mostly preseason, for now. Every game played shrinks that share.

PartValueWeightAdds
Margin counted+6.3 avg× 27%+1.7
Opponents faced-6.1 avg× 27%-1.7
Preseason prior-0.9× 73%-0.6
Power-0.6

This explains how the model reached the number. The opponent ratings come out of the same fitted model, so it is not independent proof that the rating is right.

Results

Expected is the margin the model's ratings imply for that matchup and site. Perf is how far the actual margin beat it — the result against expectation. Adds is a different question: how many points of Power the game contributes, counting its margin and the strength of the opponent together. A game can beat expectation and still add little, or the reverse. Adds, plus the preseason prior, sum to Power (figures are rounded so the column adds up). Hover an Adds figure for its arithmetic.

WkOpponentResult ExpectedPerfAdds
2 at Alabama L 74–96 -28.2 +6.2 +0.2
2 vs Howard Payne non-D1 W 102–59 +35.5 +7.5 +0.0
3 vs Pepperdine W 85–77 +8.6 -0.6 -0.2
Preseason prior (73% of the rating)-0.6
Power-0.6

Remaining schedule

WkOpponent ProjectedWin prob
3 at Illinois -32.6 0%
4 at Wyoming -8.7 21%
4 at Boise State -15.7 8%
5 at Washington State +0.2 51%
5 vs Paul Quinn non-D1 +35.5 100%
7 at Nevada -14.3 10%
10 vs Missouri State +8.0 77%
10 vs Florida International +4.7 67%

Season by season

Best finish: #34 in 2014–15. 22 seasons rated. The two columns' numbers are not comparable; the rank within each is. Season links open that year's game log.

25 1 250 2004–05 (MRI Classic): #105 of 326 (17-12)2005–06 (MRI Classic): #136 of 326 (22-9)2006–07 (MRI Classic): #89 of 326 (21-10)2007–08 (MRI Classic): #62 of 328 (23-8)2008–09 (MRI Classic): #104 of 330 (18-12)2009–10 (MRI Classic): #56 of 335 (25-8)2010–11 (MRI Classic): #107 of 346 (18-13)2011–12 (MRI Classic): #243 of 345 (13-17)2012–13 (MRI Classic): #184 of 347 (14-17)2013–14 (MRI Classic): #96 of 351 (24-11)2014–15 (MRI Classic): #34 of 351 (26-9)2015–16 (MRI Classic): #149 of 351 (18-16)2016–17 (MRI Classic): #140 of 351 (21-13)2017–18 (MRI Classic): #154 of 351 (21-15)2018–19 (MRI Classic): #144 of 353 (18-12)2019–20 (MRI Classic): #186 of 353 (14-13)2020–21 (MRI 2.0): #121 of 347 (19-9)2021–22 (MRI 2.0): #136 of 358 (19-14)2022–23 (MRI 2.0): #75 of 363 (26-8)2023–24 (MRI 2.0): #136 of 362 (21-12)2024–25 (MRI 2.0): #182 of 364 (13-19)2025–26 (MRI 2.0): #122 of 365 (22-12) MRI 2.0Classic 2004–05 2025–26

Finishing rank, best at the top, on an axis running to 250 — this team's own range, not the size of the field. Two lines where both ratings cover a season - MRI 2.0 in red, Classic in grey. Hover a point for the season.

SeasonRec MRI 2.0MRI Classic
2025–26 22–12 #122 of 365 · 3.18 –
2024–25 13–19 #182 of 364 · -1.23 –
2023–24 21–12 #136 of 362 · 2.69 –
2022–23 26–8 #75 of 363 · 8.72 –
2021–22 19–14 #136 of 358 · 2.79 –
2020–21 19–9 #121 of 347 · 3.52 –
2019–20 14–13 – #186 of 353 · 29.81
2018–19 18–12 – #144 of 353 · 41.83
2017–18 21–15 – #154 of 351 · 45.58
2016–17 21–13 – #140 of 351 · 50.36
2015–16 18–16 – #149 of 351 · 51.35
2014–15 26–9 – #34 of 351 · 119.13
2013–14 24–11 – #96 of 351 · 71.55
2012–13 14–17 – #184 of 347 · 24.18
2011–12 13–17 – #243 of 345 · 2.56
2010–11 18–13 – #107 of 346 · 67.53
2009–10 25–8 – #56 of 335 · 107.22
2008–09 18–12 – #104 of 330 · 64.62
2007–08 23–8 – #62 of 328 · 92.06
2006–07 21–10 – #89 of 326 · 73.94
2005–06 22–9 – #136 of 326 · 43.28
2004–05 17–12 – #105 of 326 · 57.33